Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.7%
Secondary
Market
24.5%
Certus
28.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Result
Market
52.2%
Certus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.2%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-15 01:00
· Certus
Elfsborg vs Vasteras SKElfsborg vs Vasteras SK
Predicted2-1
Actual3-0
Core configuration [2.5] Big, second choice handicap home and away and [-1]
Primary[2.5] Over✓Secondaryand[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the 17th round of the Swedish Super League in the 2026 season. Through on-site data retrieval, it was confirmed that Huastras (25 points from 16 games, ranked 6th) is even slightly ahead of Ivesborg (24 points from 16 games, ranked 7th) in the standings. The strength and status of the two sides are extremely close. However, the market currently gives an in-depth pricing of 1.69 home wins (approximately 52.2% implied winning rate), which is suspected of over-amplifying Ivesborg's home court advantage.
In terms of lineup, Eversborg's main forward Per Frick is confirmed to be out due to an ankle fracture, which will weaken the home team's absolute ability to control positional battles; although the visiting team Wastras has main defender F. Nsabiyumva injured on the defensive end, the team has scored 25 goals in the first 16 rounds, has good offensive firepower, and has strong ability to compete and counterattack away from home. It is worth noting that the two sides drew 2-2 in the first round of confrontation in April this year, and Ifsberg only managed to draw a thrilling draw in stoppage time.
A comprehensive assessment shows that this game is a "grey zone" contest with high fighting spirit and close competition. The risk and reward of simply winning the main victory are not proportional. Tactically, both sides have defensive risks and the away team plays in an open style, so the chance of scoring more goals is extremely high. In terms of handicap configuration, it is recommended to avoid the direction of victory and defeat, and lock in [2.5] Big as the core configuration; considering that even if the home team wins, it will be difficult to beat the opponent, the second choice can consider and [-1] of handicap home and away, to accurately capture the result pattern of the home team winning just one goal.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
