Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+19.0%
Secondary
Market
46.0%
Certus
45.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.2%
Result
Market
46.0%
Certus
45.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.2%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-08-15 01:00
· Certus
Viborg vs AGF AarhusViborg vs AGF Aarhus
Predicted1-0
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] is fine, second choice wins.
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
The core dividing line for this game is "physical reserves" and "lineup integrity." According to the latest information retrieved from the on-site Internet, the home team Yubao has shown extreme defensive discipline since the beginning of the season. In the first three rounds of the league, there were only 2 goals in total (goals scored 1-1, game results 1-0, 0-1, 0-0). The team's pace is slow and the defense is tight.
On the other hand, the visiting team Ahous had just experienced a very exhausting European competition on August 11, traveling to Azerbaijan and losing 0-4 to Sabah. Ahous not only suffered a setback in morale, but also suffered from a short three-day rest period and long-distance travel that put his physical fitness at an absolute disadvantage. To make matters worse, Frederik Tingager, the absolute core of Alhous' defense, and Nicolai Poulsen, the main midfielder, were both absent due to injuries, and the stability of the midfield and backfield was greatly weakened.
In terms of market pricing, the agency opened a low price of 1.71 for the [2.5] big ball. This is obviously affected by Alhous's more open style of play in the past, but it fails to fully digest his current severe fatigue and the suffocating dull play style of Yubao. In the gray area where the implied probability of the home team's direction is about 46%, there is a certain risk of a draw if the home team wins directly. Comprehensive evaluation shows that this game will be a war of attrition in which both sides' offensive ends are difficult to use full firepower. Choosing [2.5] Fine as the core defensive configuration has excellent value and fault tolerance.
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