Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.5%
Secondary
Market
54.8%
Ordo
48.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.4%
Result
Market
54.8%
Ordo
48.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.4%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-30 01:00
· Ordo
Lech Poznan vs AGF AarhusLech Poznan vs AGF Aarhus
Predicted2-1
Actual0-3
Core setup [2.5] high, second pick home win, predicted score 2:1.
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical style and game situation:
Polish giant Lech Poznan has always had strong control and pressure at home in European games, and is good at using the wings to tear apart the opponent's defense; Danish powerhouse AGF Aarhus has excellent physical conditions and is good at high-altitude ball and set-piece counterattacks, but when faced with high-intensity pressure in away games, mistakes are easy to make when playing in the backcourt.
Market Pricing and Data Verification:
The market gives a main win of 1.62 (implied winning rate of about 54.8% after de-bumping), the large and small ball baseline is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (large ball) pricing is as low as 1.59 (implied winning rate as high as 59.5%). The wave market also topped the list with 2:1 (Implied Rank 1), which shows that market institutions generally favor the ability of both teams to score goals, and the home team's offense has the upper hand.
Key Risks:
The cup attribute carries the risk of lineup rotation and tactical retention. If Ahous adopts extremely intensive defense as a guest, it may slow down the pace of the game in the early stages. However, based on the offensive and defensive characteristics of the two teams and the high market pricing, the ball direction in this game has the highest degree of certainty.
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