Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.6%
Secondary
Market
44.0%
Ordo
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+12.0%
Result
Market
85.1%
Ordo
69.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.6%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-30 02:00
· Ordo
Crvena Zvezda vs LarneCrvena Zvezda vs Larne
Predicted3-0
Actual5-0
Core setup is home win, second choice [3.5] narrow, model estimate 3:0.
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Gaps in tactics and strength: Red Star Belgrade, as a Serbian Super League club and a frequent visitor to European competitions, possesses cross-level field control and suppression at home in "Maracana". There is a significant gap between the size of the Northern Ireland team Larne FC's lineup and their European experience. They are expected to use extreme deep defense (Low Block) to block the opponent's attack in the away game.
Handicap and data actuarial: Market pricing gives the main win 1.05 (implied probability of about 85.1%), which is extremely certain. However, the baseline for goal size is as high as 3.5 goals. Taking into account the two-round elimination system of the cup, if Red Star takes an early 2-0 or 3-0 lead, it is very likely that the main force will be rotated to retain strength. The slowdown in the final stage will reduce the probability of a huge score.
Configuration logic: The main victory is the cornerstone asset with the highest certainty; taking into account the risk of cup rotation, the secondary selection is matched with [3.5] details for field control defense, and the model estimates the final score to be 3:0.
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