Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Secondary
Market
62.8%
Ordo
54.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.8%
Result
Market
62.8%
Ordo
54.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.8%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-30 02:00
· Ordo
Gornik Zabrze vs FenerbahceGornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahce
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] high, second pick away win, model estimate score 1:2.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this UEFA Champions League match, the Polish team Shakhtar Zabrze will face the Turkish Super League giants Fehrenbach at home. Judging from the overall combat strength and market pricing, Feerenbahz conceded an integer goal as a guest (guest [-1] 1.85), with an implied probability of winning alone as high as 62.8% (win or loss 1.41), showing a significant cross-level strength advantage.
Tactical and Offensive Deduction:
Lack of strength and depth of lineup: Fehrenbach has rich experience in European competitions and has a multi-point offensive configuration in the frontcourt. Facing Shakhtar Zabrze, whose defense system is relatively weak, he is expected to dominate the game and exert high pressure.
Goal expectations are high: The market gives the high zone a low level of 1.65 at the [2.5] goal baseline, reflecting the strong expectation of funds for a big offensive score in the clash between the two teams. The hot spots are concentrated at 0:1, 0:2 and 1:2, which shows that the visiting team’s offensive firepower will be the main line of this game.
Cup game fighting spirit and risk control: Taking into account the cup away game environment and potential lineup rotation risks, if Fehrenbach takes the lead, Shakhtar Zabrze will inevitably be forced to counterattack, which will easily expand the backcourt space.
Comprehensive data actuarial and tactical confrontation models, the total score of the game exceeds 2.5 goals with the highest degree of certainty, so [2.5] Big is selected as the core asset, and away win is used as the directional auxiliary configuration.
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