Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
47.6%
Ordo
42.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.4%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-30 01:30
· Ordo
CS Universitatea Craiova vs Levski SofiaCS Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia
Predicted1-0
Actual2-2
Core allocation [2.5] is fine, secondary choice is main [0] to guard against the risk of a draw
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Tournament Pattern: CS Karaois University and Levski Sofia played against each other in the European Cup. In the first round of the cup knockout stage, the tactical styles of the two teams are expected to be based on exploration and solid defense. In addition, coupled with the early season lineup adjustment and cup rotation risk (rotation_risk_level: high), the overall game rhythm is difficult to fully relax.
Data and Market Pricing Assessment: The market offers a main win of 1.86 (implied probability of de-pumping is about 47.6%), falling into the typical direction gray area of 42%–52%; at the same time, the implied probability of a draw water code of 3.15 is as high as 28.1%, showing that the balance of power and the risk of a draw are significant. The baseline of goal size is 2.5, and the price in the low zone is only 1.67 (implied low goal probability > 58%), which reflects the institution's high precautions against low score difference results.
Configuration logic and strategy execution: Since the certainty of the main winning direction does not reach the absolute advantage, according to the decision tree specifications, it is prohibited to directly use the three independent results (result) as the first choice. The core configuration selects the one with the highest market and data resonance [2.5] Fine; the auxiliary configuration selects Main[0] Asian Handicap to take advantage of the home court advantage while hedging the risk of a draw.
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