Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
36.9%
Certus
36.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.5%
Settled
English Championship · 2026-08-15 22:00
· Certus
Bristol City vs MillwallBristol City vs Millwall
Predicted1-0
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap main [0]
Primary[2.5] Under✓Secondarymain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
tactics and impact of injuries: This game is the first round of the 2026/27 English Championship. Bristol City is led by new coach Michael Skubala, but the team has just confirmed the sale of core midfielder Max Bird to Birmingham City the day before the game (August 14). In addition, main backbone Luke McNally is still recovering from his cruciate ligament, and the passing and control system in the midfield and backfield is facing the pain of restructuring. The visiting team Mihore's situation is also serious. Coach Alex Neil confirmed that defense general Tristan Crama will be out for a long time due to ankle surgery. Midfielders Mathis Servais and Derek Mazou-Sacko are also exempted from the game. Neither side is able to attack with a complete lineup, and the tacit understanding and conversion efficiency on the offensive end are bound to be compromised.
Market pricing bias: The current market price is 2.39 for the main win (the implied probability of de-pumping is about 36.9%), and the confidence in the overall result direction is extremely low. Taking into account the cautious attitude in the first round encounter and Mihore's defensive tactics in the past visits to Ashton Gate, the price in the low-end area of the 2.5-goal over/under was dropped to 1.75, showing that funds are strongly guarding against boring games. The market may have underestimated the "powerlessness" caused by the loss of core players on both sides.
Allocation strategy: Since the expected winning rate of home win or away win is lower than the 45% decision-making red line, the risk of forced allocation of result handicap is too high. According to the decision tree, the core configuration must shift to the goal size [2.5] with a self-assessed winning rate of more than 60%; the second option is to use the Asian Handicap Main [0] handicap opened in the list, while retaining the weak home advantage, using the draw draw mechanism to hedge up to 30% of the risk of a draw.
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