Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
32.5%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.5%
Result
Market
29.4%
Certus
31.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.3%
Settled
English Championship · 2026-08-15 22:00
· Certus
Stoke vs SwanseaStoke vs Swansea
Predicted1-1
Actual1-2
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical lineup and confrontation construction
Stoke City mostly uses high-pressure pressing and tough physical confrontation in the British Championship, focusing on crosses from the wing and two-point contests; while Swinth inherits the ball control system and is good at luring opponents to press forward through short passes in the backcourt, and then launches precise pass-and-cut counterattacks. In this Stoke City home game, they will inevitably try to suppress it in the opening stage, but Swansea's ability to pass, control and pull can effectively resolve the high pressure, causing the two teams to get into a tug-of-war in the low position.
Market Pricing and Expected Value Analysis
The latest implied pricing in the market is Home win 2.32 (38.1%) | Draw 3.00 (29.4%) | Away win 2.72 (32.5%). The converted probability of home win market pricing is less than 40%, and the probability of a draw is close to 30%, which is a typical low-directional confidence (balanced market) game. At the same time, the [2.5] goal-to-large low area (thin goal) is priced at only 1.69, and the half-time draw market pricing are 1.95, showing that institutions have a high degree of consensus on the stalemate in the first half and the low number of goals in the whole game.
Executable configuration logic
Since the list of available handicaps for this game does not include Asian handicap (asian_handicap), and the certainty of home victory is less than 45%, according to the decision tree specifications, it is prohibited to use home and away (result) as the first choice. Under the self-evaluation model, the probability of [2.5] fine balls is about 59%, which is the asset with the highest market confidence; the second choice configuration is handicap home and away and guest [+1], which can completely cover the 1-1 draw and away win scores, and mathematically accurately align the 1-1 predicted score.
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