Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.1%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
34.9%
Certus
35.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.3%
Settled
English Championship · 2026-08-15 22:00
· Certus
Charlton vs DerbyCharlton vs Derby
Predicted0-1
Actual2-1
The core configuration of the first round of boring battle [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0] defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the first round of the 2026-27 English Champions League (English Championship). According to the latest retrieved information, the two teams just completed their EFL Cup (League Cup) schedule in midweek: Charlton defeated Cheltenham Town 3-1, while Derby County lost 1-2 to Lincoln City. Despite the victory in the Charlton Cup, the first league match of the long season in the English Championship often focuses on testing and defense, and both sides are currently suffering from a certain degree of injuries. Charlton are missing key players such as Josh Edwards and Charlie Kelman; Derby County's Matthew Clarke and Rhian Brewster are also on the injured list, which will directly affect the smoothness of the two teams on the offensive end.
The market's implicit pricing is highly stalemate (home win 34.2% / customer win 34.9%), and institutions have no absolute preference for direction. Considering that the tacit understanding of the rotation lineups of both sides at the beginning of the season still needs to be adjusted, and the main attacker is absent, there is a high chance that this game will fall into a midfield battle. In terms of handicap, the market pricing of goal over/under [2.5] have been reduced to 1.57, which is highly consistent with the fundamentals of low number of goals. Although Derby County lost in midweek, they defeated Charlton 2-1 as an away team in early 2026 and have a certain psychological ability to compete. Comprehensive evaluation, in this game without high confidence in the direction of victory, the first choice is to score a goal, and the second choice is to use the tie plate to prevent a tie and gain space for the visiting team to score points.
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