Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.2%
Secondary
Market
33.7%
Certus
32.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.3%
Result
Market
26.0%
Certus
29.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-08-16 07:30
· Certus
CF Montreal vs DC UnitedCF Montreal vs DC United
Predicted2-2
Actual1-1
The defenses of both sides are fragile and there are too many draws. The core configuration is [2.5]. The second choice is home and away and away [+1].
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Current situation and combat strength comparison
According to the latest data search in 2026, CF Montreal currently ranks 14th on the East Coast with 16 points. The team has fallen into a slump and has not won a single victory in the past 5 league rounds (3 and 2 losses). Even more fatal is the quality of its defense, which has conceded 35 goals in 18 league games (an average of nearly 2 goals per game). The away team D.C. United ranks 9th on the East Coast with 23 points. The team has shown great resilience and has remained unbeaten in 10 of the last 11 league games, with many draws. The leading striker Tai Baribo also maintains a good scoring efficiency.
2. Historical confrontations and market pricing bias
The initial market price gave an implied pricing of 2.19 for the main win (a winning rate of only about 40.3%). Under the fundamentals that the home team's defense is weak and the visiting team is extremely difficult to defeat, the support for the home team's victory is obviously insufficient, and the direction prediction falls into a high-risk "grey zone." It is worth noting that the two sides had a very high score of 4-4 in the first round match in May this year. Both teams showed the characteristics of "attacking the strong and defending the weak".
3. Configuration and Execution Strategy
Based on the system P0 level red line, when the probability of winning is less than 45% and there is no Asian Handicap Handicap ([0]) to defend against, it is strictly prohibited to use the steering wheel as the core configuration. Taking into account the porous defenses of both sides, the [2.5] Big has become the first choice asset with the highest hit rate in this game. The second option can be configured with Away [+1] to handicap home and away, which provides room for error for the undefeated away team on the basis of predicting a draw.
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