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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 62.8%

Certus 65.0%

+2.2%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 40.0%

—

Result

Market 34.8%

Certus 36.6%

+1.8%

Settled

Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-17 03:00 · Certus

Cameroon Women vs Malawi Women Cameroon Women vs Malawi Women

Predicted 1-0

Actual 3-0

Core Configuration [2.5] Fine, Second Choice Handicap Main [0] Build Tie Defense

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary main[0] Result Home Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

2.53

Market implied 39.5%

Draw

2.7

Market implied 37.0%

Away win

2.7

Market implied 37.0%

半場主客和

Home win

3.3

Market implied 30.3%

Draw

1.79

Market implied 55.9%

Away win

3.55

Market implied 28.2%

入球大細

[2/2.5]

Over

2.17

Market implied 46.1%

Under

1.61

Market implied 62.1%

[2.5]

Over

2.48

Market implied 40.3%

Under

1.47

Market implied 68.0%

[3.5]

Over

4.6

Market implied 21.7%

Under

1.14

Market implied 87.7%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.92

Market implied 34.2%

Under

1.34

Market implied 74.6%

[1.5]

Over

3.45

Market implied 29.0%

Under

1.25

Market implied 80.0%

[1.5/2]

Over

4.4

Market implied 22.7%

Under

1.15

Market implied 87.0%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

2.98

Market implied 33.6%

主 [1.5] 細

1.33

Market implied 75.2%

主 [2.5] 大

6.6

Market implied 15.2%

主 [2.5] 細

1.06

Market implied 94.3%

客 [0.5] 大

1.42

Market implied 70.4%

客 [0.5] 細

2.62

Market implied 38.2%

客 [1.5] 大

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

客 [1.5] 細

1.3

Market implied 76.9%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.38

Market implied 42.0%

主 [0.5] 細

1.51

Market implied 66.2%

主 [1.5] 大

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

主 [1.5] 細

1.05

Market implied 95.2%

客 [0.5] 大

2.45

Market implied 40.8%

客 [0.5] 細

1.48

Market implied 67.6%

客 [1.5] 大

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

客 [1.5] 細

1.04

Market implied 96.2%

半場讓球

主[0]

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

客[0]

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

讓球

主[0]

1.82

Market implied 54.9%

客[0]

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

5.5

Market implied 18.2%

和[-1]

3.95

Market implied 25.3%

客[+1]

1.4

Market implied 71.4%

主[+1]

1.35

Market implied 74.1%

和[+1]

4.15

Market implied 24.1%

客[-1]

6.0

Market implied 16.7%

波膽

Home

1:0

5.9

2:0

10.5

2:1

9.0

3:0

28.0

3:1

25.0

3:2

40.0

4:0

70.0

4:1

60.0

4:2

100.0

5:0

250.0

5:1

250.0

5:2

400.0

Draw

0:0

5.7

1:1

5.3

2:2

13.0

3:3

70.0

Away

0:1

6.1

0:2

11.0

1:2

9.5

0:3

30.0

1:3

28.0

2:3

40.0

0:4

70.0

1:4

70.0

2:4

100.0

0:5

300.0

1:5

300.0

2:5

400.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

4.3

2:0

12.0

2:1

22.0

3:0

70.0

3:1

125.0

3:2

500.0

4:0

500.0

4:1

700.0

4:2

1500.0

5:0

2000.0

5:1

3000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

2.05

1:1

6.9

2:2

80.0

3:3

1000.0

Away

0:1

4.8

0:2

12.0

1:2

23.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

150.0

2:3

500.0

0:4

500.0

1:4

700.0

2:4

2000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

4000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

主-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

5.4

Market implied 18.5%

和-和

3.6

Market implied 27.8%

和-客

5.7

Market implied 17.5%

客-主

28.0

Market implied 3.6%

客-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

客-客

4.6

Market implied 21.7%

總入球

0球

5.7

Market implied 17.5%

1球

3.5

Market implied 28.6%

2球

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

3球

4.1

Market implied 24.4%

4球

6.8

Market implied 14.7%

5球

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

6球

28.0

Market implied 3.6%

7+球

45.0

Market implied 2.2%

入球單雙

單

1.93

Market implied 51.8%

雙

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

第一隊入球

主

2.02

Market implied 49.5%

無

5.7

Market implied 17.5%

客

2.12

Market implied 47.2%

Recent form

Cameroon Women

D W D W W

2026-08-13 摩洛哥女足 0-0
2026-08-10 尼日利亞女足 1-0
2026-08-07 佛得角女足 1-1
2026-08-03 加納女足 0-1
2026-07-30 馬里女足 2-1

Malawi Women

W W L W W

Team dossier

Malawi Women

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

【Combat Strength and Current Situation】 This game is the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) final. The Cameroon women's football team, which has a rich heritage, showed extreme defensive resilience in the knockout stage, keeping consecutive clean sheets against defending champion Nigeria (1-0) and host Morocco (0-0 in 120 minutes, PK 3-1 to advance). The super dark horse Malawi women's football team, which entered the finals for the first time, relies heavily on the Chawinga sisters (Tabitha and Temwa) who play in top overseas leagues for their tactics. The two scored all the goals in the 3-1 victory over Algeria in the semi-finals, and their frontcourt scoring was extremely explosive.

[market pricing and market pricing errors] The initial market price gave an almost even price (home win 2.53, away win 2.70), and the handicap was a tie (home [0] 1.82), which shows that institutions are extremely cautious in evaluating this "spear and shield" duel, and the defense line of victory and defeat is fiercely stretched. However, the goal score of [2.5] was significantly reduced to a low of 1.47. This reflects the market's strong expectation that both sides will start conservatively in the high-pressure environment of the final. In addition, Cameroon is likely to adopt low defense to compress the sprint space of Malawi's two forwards, further lowering the total number of goals.

【Tactics and Execution Configuration】 The probability of winning or losing has not exceeded 45%, and the implied probability of a draw is as high as 32.6%. The risk of direct gaming in the direction of winning is too high. Following the system's decision-making logic, the core configuration prioritizes the goal size [2.5] with a self-assessed probability of 65%. The second choice is to use the Asian handicap handicap mechanism provided in the list and configure Main[0] for water-based defense. It is optimistic that Cameroon, which has more experience in competitions and a more mature defensive system, can be invincible in regular time.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Cameroon Women vs Malawi Women Cameroon Women vs Malawi Women

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

入球大細

半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

半場讓球

讓球

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

Cameroon Women

Malawi Women

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis