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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 56.4%

Certus 62.0%

+5.6%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 35.0%

—

Result

Market 50.7%

Certus 31.7%

-19.0%

Settled

Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-13 01:00 · Certus

Algeria Women vs Malawi Women Algeria Women vs Malawi Women

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1-3

Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap main [0/+0.5]

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Main[0/+0.5] Result Draw Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

639.0

Market implied 0.2%

Draw

2.88

Market implied 34.7%

Away win

2.97

Market implied 33.7%

半場主客和

Home win

3.6

Market implied 27.8%

Draw

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

Away win

2.92

Market implied 34.2%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.55

Market implied 39.2%

Under

1.45

Market implied 69.0%

[1.5]

Over

3.05

Market implied 32.8%

Under

1.32

Market implied 75.8%

[1.5/2]

Over

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

Under

1.2

Market implied 83.3%

入球大細

[2/2.5]

Over

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

Under

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

[2.5]

Over

2.12

Market implied 47.2%

Under

1.64

Market implied 61.0%

[3.5]

Over

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

Under

1.21

Market implied 82.6%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.35

Market implied 42.6%

主 [0.5] 細

1.52

Market implied 65.8%

主 [1.5] 大

8.0

Market implied 12.5%

主 [1.5] 細

1.04

Market implied 96.2%

客 [0.5] 大

2.08

Market implied 48.1%

客 [0.5] 細

1.66

Market implied 60.2%

客 [1.5] 大

6.25

Market implied 16.0%

客 [1.5] 細

1.07

Market implied 93.5%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

2.92

Market implied 34.2%

主 [1.5] 細

1.34

Market implied 74.6%

主 [2.5] 大

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

主 [2.5] 細

1.05

Market implied 95.2%

客 [1.5] 大

2.45

Market implied 40.8%

客 [1.5] 細

1.48

Market implied 67.6%

客 [2.5] 大

5.4

Market implied 18.5%

客 [2.5] 細

1.1

Market implied 90.9%

半場讓球

主[0/+0.5]

1.52

Market implied 65.8%

客[0/-0.5]

2.35

Market implied 42.6%

讓球

主[0/+0.5]

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

客[0/-0.5]

2.0

Market implied 50.0%

讓球主客和

主[+1]

1.51

Market implied 66.2%

和[+1]

3.75

Market implied 26.7%

客[-1]

4.7

Market implied 21.3%

主[-1]

6.5

Market implied 15.4%

和[-1]

4.45

Market implied 22.5%

客[+1]

1.31

Market implied 76.3%

波膽

Home

1:0

7.5

2:0

13.5

2:1

9.75

3:0

30.0

3:1

26.0

3:2

35.0

4:0

70.0

4:1

60.0

4:2

80.0

5:0

300.0

5:1

250.0

5:2

300.0

Draw

0:0

7.5

1:1

5.6

2:2

13.0

3:3

50.0

Away

0:1

6.4

0:2

10.0

1:2

8.25

0:3

21.0

1:3

19.0

2:3

30.0

0:4

40.0

1:4

40.0

2:4

70.0

0:5

125.0

1:5

125.0

2:5

250.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

5.1

2:0

13.0

2:1

21.0

3:0

80.0

3:1

125.0

3:2

400.0

4:0

500.0

4:1

700.0

4:2

1000.0

5:0

2000.0

5:1

3000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

2.35

1:1

6.7

2:2

70.0

3:3

900.0

Away

0:1

4.05

0:2

9.5

1:2

16.0

0:3

50.0

1:3

80.0

2:3

300.0

0:4

300.0

1:4

500.0

2:4

1000.0

0:5

1000.0

1:5

2000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

4.9

Market implied 20.4%

主-和

13.5

Market implied 7.4%

主-客

28.0

Market implied 3.6%

和-主

6.3

Market implied 15.9%

和-和

4.2

Market implied 23.8%

和-客

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

客-主

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

客-和

13.5

Market implied 7.4%

客-客

3.55

Market implied 28.2%

總入球

0球

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

1球

3.85

Market implied 26.0%

2球

3.2

Market implied 31.2%

3球

3.85

Market implied 26.0%

4球

6.0

Market implied 16.7%

5球

10.5

Market implied 9.5%

6球

25.0

Market implied 4.0%

7+球

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

入球單雙

單

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

雙

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

第一隊入球

主

2.16

Market implied 46.3%

無

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

客

1.83

Market implied 54.6%

Recent form

Algeria Women

W W L W

Malawi Women

W L W W

2026-08-10 加納女足 2-1
2026-08-06 贊比亞女足 1-2
2026-08-02 埃及女足 1-3
2026-07-29 尼日利亞女足 2-3

Other matches same day

04:00 · 摩洛哥女足 vs 喀麥隆女足 (0-0)

Team dossier

Malawi Women

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

This women's Africa Cup of Nations match pits the Algerian women's football team against the Malawi women's football team. Judging from the latest market pricing, the away win indicator is set at 2.23 (implied probability of about 39.6%), the home win at 2.88 and the draw at 2.97. The three probabilities in the market are significantly dispersed and do not give any side an absolute advantage of more than 40%. It is a typical cup competition pattern with high uncertainty.

In terms of tactics and lineup construction, the Women's National Team Cup generally has the characteristics of slow transition of offensive and defensive rhythms and a focus on defense. Although the Malawi women's football team is slightly tilted towards the away game, it is limited by the stability of away attacks and the risk of rotation, and it is difficult to form a crushing momentum; the Algerian women's football team has a strong fighting spirit when playing away games or at home, and its physical fitness and confrontation intensity have defensive resilience.

Analysis from the data handicap structure:

Goal size is extremely low: The price of the 2.5-goal low zone (fine) is as high as 1.64 (implied probability is more than 60%), and the 2/2.5-goal high and low zones are equal, showing that institutions have a high degree of consensus on the low score and boring game in this game.
Handicap Handicap: Asia's handicap is an away handicap (Away [0/-0.5] 2.0 | Home [0/+0.5] 1.77). The home team's handicap is a flat handicap in line with low score expectations. A draw can guarantee half bet income, and the defensive value is excellent.

Comprehensive evaluation shows that the risk of winning in this game is too high. The core should be to lock in a low-scoring defensive tone throughout the game, and use the transferee as a directional hedging.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Algeria Women vs Malawi Women Algeria Women vs Malawi Women

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

半場讓球

讓球

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

Algeria Women

Malawi Women

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis