Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
31.8%
Certus
33.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-09 01:00
· Certus
Cote d'Ivoire Women vs Algeria WomenCote d'Ivoire Women vs Algeria Women
Predicted1-1
Actual1-2
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0/+0.5]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0/+0.5]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
【Combat Power and Tactical Situation】
This game is the top eight knockout round of the 2026 Women's African Cup of Nations (WAFCON). The winner will not only advance to the semi-finals, but also directly qualify for the 2027 Brazil Women's World Cup. Therefore, the fighting spirit of both sides is at its absolute peak. The Ivory Coast women's football team showed strong offensive firepower in the group stage, scoring 8 goals in 3 games and winning the first place in Group B with an unbeaten record of 2 wins and 1 draw. The team is led by the famous coach Reynald Pedros. The team has the sharp striker Priscille Kreto who just won the FIFA Series 2026 Golden Boot. The frontcourt impact is very strong.
Relatively speaking, the Algerian women's football team's path to promotion is based on extreme defensive discipline. They achieved 2 wins and 1 loss in Group A, during which they only conceded 1 goal against the powerful host Morocco, and kept 2-0 shutouts against Senegal and Kenya. The defense, led by Bristol City's Marine Dafeur, will be a tough test for Ivory Coast's ferocious attack.
【Market Pricing and Handicap Evaluation】
Data shows that the home and away market pricing of this game are 2.32/2.85/2.85. Since this is a World Cup ticket battle that determines life and death, both sides are expected to be extremely cautious in the opening stage. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a firepower advantage, it may not be easy to use against Algeria's efficient low defense. The market offers a large-goal premium of as high as 2.29 for 2.5 goals, while the fine market price is as low as 1.55, showing that institutions are extremely wary of boring wars. Considering that the two sides are close in strength and the implied probability of a draw is as high as 31%, the chance of a draw within the legal time of this game is not low.
【Configuration Suggestions】
In the gray zone where direction confidence is less than 45%, it is too risky to force a winning direction. The first recommendation is to comply with market defensive expectations and tactical logic, and configure [2.5] fine. If you need to take into account the result and defense, the second option can be to consider the Asian handicap away [0/+0.5], and use Algeria's strong defensive resilience to cover the draw benefits.
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