Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.7%
Secondary
Market
56.2%
Certus
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.0%
Result
Market
56.2%
Certus
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.0%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-17 01:00
· Certus
Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AKRapid Vienna vs Grazer AK
Predicted1-0
Actual8-0
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice of home and guest and home win
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
tactics and current fundamentals:
According to the latest data of the Austrian League 1 in the 2026-27 season, Vienna got off to a very hot start. They won the first two rounds of the league and ranked second in the league with 6 points. The traditional powerhouse Grazspor also remained undefeated, with 1 win, 1 and 4 points, followed by 5th temporarily. It is worth noting that both teams performed very well on the defensive end at the beginning of the season, conceding only 1 goal in both games, demonstrating extremely high tactical discipline and defensive stability. Taking into account the pressure of two-line combat that usually accompanies European qualifying matches in August, the two sides are expected to be more cautious in the distribution of physical fitness in this league, and may not necessarily adopt open-and-close offensive tactics.
Market pricing and handicap bias:
The implied probability of home victory in this game is 56.2% (priced at 1.57), reflecting the market’s strong optimism for Vienna’s rapid winning streak and home court advantage. However, Sport Graz will be quite capable of contending. In the current situation where the Jockey Club has not issued an Asian Handicap Handicap (Water Defence), there is a certain risk in overly pursuing a low-water home win. Due to the outstanding defensive data of both sides, the goal score baseline is set at 2.5 goals and the score is relatively balanced, showing that the market's expectations for the number of goals are not too high. Based on the tactical mentality of seeking stability at the beginning of the season, [2.5] has a high configuration value.
Result deduction:
It is expected that the game will unfold at a relatively dull and cautious pace, and the strangulation of the midfielders of both sides will consume a lot of time. Vienna is expected to take a slight lead with its home momentum, but it will be difficult to easily break through the opponent's defense. 1-0 or 1-1 are the most likely results.
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