Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
71.7%
Certus
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.0%
Settled
Women Mexican Premier · 2026-08-17 07:00
· Certus
Guadalajara Women vs Atletico San Luis WomenGuadalajara Women vs Atletico San Luis Women
Predicted3-1
Actual3-1
Core configuration [3.5] Big, second team scores goals Main [2.5] Big
Primary[3.5] Over✓Secondarymain [2.5] big—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
[Historical heritage and current situation intertwined]
According to the latest schedule and dynamics of the 2026 Women's Mexican Super League (Apertura), the Guadalajara Women's Football Team (Chivas Femenil) showed strong offensive dominance at the start of the season. In the first two league games, they defeated Queretaro 3-1 and beat Puebla 4-1 away from home. They scored 7 goals in both games and their forward players (such as Jasmine Casarez) are in hot form. On the other hand, the Atlético San Luis Femenil Women's Football Team (Atlético San Luis Femenil), although they narrowly defeated the Tijuana Women's Football Team 2-1 in the last round and won their first win of the season, there is still a clear gap in the thickness of the overall lineup and the stability of the away defense.
[Travel and Market Pricing Bias]
The historical confrontation data is a clear mirror: the two sides have met 14 times in the history of the Mexican Women's Super League. The Guadalajara women's football team has won 11 and drawn 3 to remain unbeaten. The home court advantage is showing a crushing trend. The current market offers an extremely low implied pricing of 1.22 for the main win (the main win probability is as high as 71.7% after removing the margin), which makes pure directional win-loss bets lose room for investment returns. However, it is worth noting that although Guadalajara has been full of firepower recently, its defense is not watertight (they have conceded goals in two consecutive games), which has greatly increased the actual expectations of goals.
[Tactical and Executable Asset Assessment]
Compared with the risk of deadlock caused by forcing the ball to handicap home and away (handicap_had), locking the number of goals in this game is a more stable configuration. The strong offensive power of the home team is fully capable of producing more than 3 goals alone; if the St. Louis Athletic Association women's football team can score a goal through counterattack, it will directly accelerate the breakthrough of the large and small handicap. Therefore, avoiding the too low home winning market pricing and turning to goal scoring is the most reliable decision in this game.
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