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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 53.1%

Certus 59.0%

+5.9%

Secondary

Market 30.8%

Certus 31.0%

+0.2%

Result

Market 29.1%

Certus 32.4%

+3.3%

Settled

UE Champions · 2026-08-20 03:00 · Certus

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FC Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FC

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2-1

Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Guest[+1] Result Draw Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

2.21

Market implied 45.2%

Draw

3.05

Market implied 32.8%

Away win

2.88

Market implied 34.7%

半場主客和

Home win

2.9

Market implied 34.5%

Draw

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

Away win

3.55

Market implied 28.2%

入球大細

[2.5]

Over

1.97

Market implied 50.8%

Under

1.74

Market implied 57.5%

[2.5/3]

Over

2.29

Market implied 43.7%

Under

1.55

Market implied 64.5%

[3.5]

Over

3.45

Market implied 29.0%

Under

1.25

Market implied 80.0%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.4

Market implied 41.7%

Under

1.5

Market implied 66.7%

[1.5]

Over

2.85

Market implied 35.1%

Under

1.36

Market implied 73.5%

[1.5/2]

Over

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

Under

1.23

Market implied 81.3%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.05

Market implied 48.8%

主 [0.5] 細

1.68

Market implied 59.5%

主 [1.5] 大

5.9

Market implied 16.9%

主 [1.5] 細

1.08

Market implied 92.6%

客 [0.5] 大

2.25

Market implied 44.4%

客 [0.5] 細

1.57

Market implied 63.7%

客 [1.5] 大

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

客 [1.5] 細

1.05

Market implied 95.2%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

2.3

Market implied 43.5%

主 [1.5] 細

1.54

Market implied 64.9%

主 [2.5] 大

5.15

Market implied 19.4%

主 [2.5] 細

1.11

Market implied 90.1%

客 [1.5] 大

2.75

Market implied 36.4%

客 [1.5] 細

1.38

Market implied 72.5%

客 [2.5] 大

6.6

Market implied 15.2%

客 [2.5] 細

1.06

Market implied 94.3%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

4.55

Market implied 22.0%

和[-1]

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

客[+1]

1.52

Market implied 65.8%

主[+1]

1.31

Market implied 76.3%

和[+1]

4.5

Market implied 22.2%

客[-1]

6.5

Market implied 15.4%

波膽

Home

1:0

6.9

2:0

10.5

2:1

8.0

3:0

22.0

3:1

19.0

3:2

27.0

4:0

40.0

4:1

40.0

4:2

60.0

5:0

125.0

5:1

100.0

5:2

150.0

Draw

0:0

8.25

1:1

5.7

2:2

12.5

3:3

40.0

Away

0:1

8.0

0:2

14.0

1:2

9.5

0:3

30.0

1:3

24.0

2:3

30.0

0:4

70.0

1:4

50.0

2:4

70.0

0:5

300.0

1:5

200.0

2:5

300.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

4.1

2:0

9.5

2:1

15.0

3:0

50.0

3:1

80.0

3:2

300.0

4:0

300.0

4:1

500.0

4:2

900.0

5:0

1000.0

5:1

2000.0

5:2

4000.0

Draw

0:0

2.41

1:1

6.8

2:2

60.0

3:3

800.0

Away

0:1

5.1

0:2

13.0

1:2

19.0

0:3

70.0

1:3

100.0

2:3

400.0

0:4

500.0

1:4

600.0

2:4

1000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

3000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

3.5

Market implied 28.6%

主-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

5.2

Market implied 19.2%

和-和

4.4

Market implied 22.7%

和-客

6.3

Market implied 15.9%

客-主

28.0

Market implied 3.6%

客-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

客-客

4.8

Market implied 20.8%

總入球

0球

8.25

Market implied 12.1%

1球

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

2球

3.25

Market implied 30.8%

3球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

4球

5.5

Market implied 18.2%

5球

9.75

Market implied 10.3%

6球

21.0

Market implied 4.8%

7+球

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

入球單雙

單

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

雙

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

第一隊入球

主

1.82

Market implied 54.9%

無

8.25

Market implied 12.1%

客

2.13

Market implied 46.9%

Recent form

Hapoel Beer Sheva

W W W L

Sabah FC

W L W W

2026-08-12 阿侯斯 4-0
2026-08-06 阿侯斯 2-1
2026-07-28 古比斯 0-2
2026-07-22 古比斯 1-0

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Sabah FC

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

The first round of the Europa League play-offs (Playoffs) will see the Israeli team Bias Huashapur play at home against the Azerbaijani team Sabah FC. According to the latest Internet search facts, Bias Hua Hapur suffered a 0-4 defeat to Haifa Workers in the domestic cup on August 16, 2026. There are hidden dangers in defensive line status and physical rotation; while Sabah FC easily defeated Kabers 2-0 in the league on the same day, and the competitive state is relatively stable.

The initial market pricing shows that the implied probability of a home win is about 40.1%, and the probability of a draw is 29.1%, reflecting that the market does not have absolute confidence in the home team. Since this game is the first round of the knockout rounds, the tactical layout of both sides is expected to be conservative, aiming to avoid conceding goals prematurely. Considering the home team's recent defensive holes and the visiting team's solid trend, there is a higher chance of a boring battle or a small score result in this game. In terms of handicap configuration, due to the lack of Asian handicap in the list for defense, the core recommendation is to directly lock in the goal size [2.5]; the second choice is to use handicap home and away and guest [+1] to guard against the possibility of the away team being undefeated, and the predicted game result is 1-1.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FC Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FC

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

入球大細

半場入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier