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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 50.0%

Certus 62.0%

+12.0%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 40.0%

—

Result

Market 46.9%

Certus 42.2%

-4.7%

Settled

US Major League · 2026-08-20 10:30 · Certus

Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC

Predicted 2-1

Actual 3-1

The high opening baseline shows the intention of luring the big, the core configuration [3.5] is fine, the second choice is handicap, the main [0/-0.5]

Primary [3.5] Under Secondary Main[0/-0.5] Result Home Goals O/U [3.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.88

Market implied 53.2%

Draw

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

Away win

2.9

Market implied 34.5%

半場主客和

Home win

2.29

Market implied 43.7%

Draw

2.55

Market implied 39.2%

Away win

3.2

Market implied 31.2%

入球大細

[3.5]

Over

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

Under

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

[3.5/4]

Over

2.07

Market implied 48.3%

Under

1.67

Market implied 59.9%

[4.5]

Over

2.92

Market implied 34.2%

Under

1.34

Market implied 74.6%

半場入球大細

[1.5]

Over

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

Under

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

[1.5/2]

Over

2.25

Market implied 44.4%

Under

1.57

Market implied 63.7%

[2.5]

Over

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

Under

1.21

Market implied 82.6%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

1.52

Market implied 65.8%

主 [1.5] 細

2.35

Market implied 42.6%

主 [2.5] 大

2.7

Market implied 37.0%

主 [2.5] 細

1.39

Market implied 71.9%

客 [1.5] 大

1.89

Market implied 52.9%

客 [1.5] 細

1.81

Market implied 55.2%

客 [2.5] 大

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

客 [2.5] 細

1.2

Market implied 83.3%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.56

Market implied 64.1%

主 [0.5] 細

2.27

Market implied 44.1%

主 [1.5] 大

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

主 [1.5] 細

1.22

Market implied 82.0%

客 [0.5] 大

1.82

Market implied 54.9%

客 [0.5] 細

1.88

Market implied 53.2%

客 [1.5] 大

4.75

Market implied 21.1%

客 [1.5] 細

1.13

Market implied 88.5%

讓球

主[0/-0.5]

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

客[0/+0.5]

2.0

Market implied 50.0%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

和[-1]

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

客[+1]

1.73

Market implied 57.8%

主[+1]

1.31

Market implied 76.3%

和[+1]

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

客[-1]

5.5

Market implied 18.2%

波膽

Home

1:0

14.0

2:0

14.0

2:1

7.75

3:0

21.0

3:1

12.0

3:2

14.0

4:0

35.0

4:1

23.0

4:2

27.0

5:0

60.0

5:1

40.0

5:2

50.0

Draw

0:0

25.0

1:1

8.75

2:2

8.75

3:3

24.0

Away

0:1

17.0

0:2

21.0

1:2

10.0

0:3

35.0

1:3

20.0

2:3

18.0

0:4

60.0

1:4

40.0

2:4

40.0

0:5

150.0

1:5

80.0

2:5

80.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

4.65

2:0

8.0

2:1

10.0

3:0

26.0

3:1

35.0

3:2

80.0

4:0

80.0

4:1

125.0

4:2

400.0

5:0

500.0

5:1

600.0

5:2

900.0

Draw

0:0

4.05

1:1

5.8

2:2

28.0

3:3

300.0

Away

0:1

5.8

0:2

12.5

1:2

13.5

0:3

50.0

1:3

50.0

2:3

100.0

0:4

250.0

1:4

250.0

2:4

500.0

0:5

800.0

1:5

900.0

2:5

1500.0

半全場

主-主

2.9

Market implied 34.5%

主-和

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

主-客

23.0

Market implied 4.3%

和-主

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

和-和

7.25

Market implied 13.8%

和-客

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

客-主

18.0

Market implied 5.6%

客-和

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

客-客

4.45

Market implied 22.5%

總入球

0球

25.0

Market implied 4.0%

1球

7.75

Market implied 12.9%

2球

4.65

Market implied 21.5%

3球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

4球

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

5球

5.6

Market implied 17.9%

6球

8.25

Market implied 12.1%

7+球

9.25

Market implied 10.8%

入球單雙

單

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

雙

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

第一隊入球

主

1.63

Market implied 61.3%

無

25.0

Market implied 4.0%

客

2.05

Market implied 48.8%

Recent form

Portland Timbers

L W L W W

2026-08-17 芝加哥火燄 2-1
2026-08-14 迪祖亞拿 3-1
2026-08-10 CF 阿美利加 1-3
2026-08-07 普埃布拉 5-2
2026-08-02 西雅圖海灣者 2-1

San Diego FC

W W W L D

2026-08-16 FC洛杉磯 0-1
2026-08-13 普埃布拉 3-2
2026-08-10 迪祖亞拿 1-0
2026-08-07 CF 阿美利加 3-1
2026-08-02 明尼蘇達聯 1-1

Other matches same day

Team dossier

San Diego FC

聖地牙哥足球俱樂部，或簡稱聖地牙哥FC，是一家位於聖地牙哥的美國職業足球俱樂部。該俱樂部在美國職業足球大聯盟（MLS）中競爭，屬於西部聯盟。球隊的主場位於驍龍體育場。俱樂部的所有權集團由英國-埃及商人及前政治家穆罕默德·曼蘇爾和庫梅亞族西丘安部落組成，後者是一個聯邦承認的美國原住民族部落。該集團於2023年5月18日獲得擴展隊資格。俱樂部將於2025年賽季開始參賽，成為MLS的第30支球隊。

· Founded 2023

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

1. Combat strength and lineup loss Entering the middle of the 2026 MLS season, the Portland Timbers and San Diego FC have currently played 19 games and both have 24 points. They are about the same strength. Although the Timbers showed good firepower at home (5 wins in 9 games, scoring 20 goals), they lost their main goalkeeper James Pantemis and forward Aravena in this game, and both offense and defense were hit. The visiting team Santiago FC plays an extremely conservative style of play as an away team. In the nine away games this season, the goals scored and conceded were only 9:14 (average total goals per game: 2.55 goals). Moreover, Anders Dreyer, the center and frontcourt scorer, was suspended for this game due to a red card, further reducing the threat of counterattack.

2. Market pricing and handicap bias The market has set a baseline of 3.5 goals for this game (average ratio at both ends is 1.85), which obviously over-emphasizes the Timbers' home offensive attributes, but ignores Santiago's strong "stuffy" characteristics in the away game, as well as the impact of the absence of core members of both sides on the smoothness of the game. In terms of directional pricing, the home win rate of 1.88 implies a winning rate of about 47%, which is in the gray area where the outcome is unpredictable; without [0] tie handicap protection in the handicap list, the risk of blindly pursuing the home win is too high.

3. Comprehensive tactical deduction It is expected that San Diego will accumulate heavy troops in the midfield and backcourt in the away game to compress the Timbers' offensive space. Considering the incomplete lineups of both sides, it is difficult to have a wide-open attack in this game. When there is insufficient confidence in the direction of victory (<52%), the high [3.5] thin ball is a core asset with extremely high defensive power and data support; the second choice is the Asian handicap master [0/-0.5] with the shallowest layout, which can obtain full returns in the case of Portland's small victory with one goal.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

入球大細

半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier