Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.7%
Secondary
Market
29.7%
Certus
30.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Result
Market
27.7%
Certus
30.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Settled
English Premier League · 2026-08-22 22:00
· Certus
Nottingham Forest vs LeedsNottingham Forest vs Leeds
Predicted1-1
Actual0-1
核心配置 [2.5] 細，次選讓球主客和 客[+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryAway[+1]✓ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this English Premier League match (2026-08-22), Nottingham Forest plays Leeds United at home. Judging from the latest implicit pricing of the Jockey Club, the market pricing of a home win are 2.08 (the probability of removing margin is about 42.6%), the market pricing of a draw are 3.20 (27.7%), and the market pricing of an away win are 2.98 (29.7%). The probability of the main victory falls in the low-confidence gray zone of 42%–45%, and the probability of a draw is as high as 27.7%. There is great suspense in the direction of victory.
In terms of handicap structure, there is no Asian handicap (asian_handicap) in this game, and there are only three handicaps, home and away (handicap_had). The top three most popular scores are 1:1 (6.1), 1:0 (6.9) and 2:1 (7.75), showing that the market highly expects a tight score. The price of the subdistrict (1.84) with a total of 2.5 goals is slightly lower than that of the large area (1.86), which further confirms that the two teams' recent encounters tend to fall into a stalemate.
According to the tactics and handicap actuarial decision tree, in the absence of tie handicap defensive assets and insufficient directional confidence, the first choice is [2.5] details with the highest probability and certainty; the second choice is away[+1] (handicap home and away draw) to hedge the risk of a 1:1 draw or away win, and the overall score is estimated to be 1:1.
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