Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.1%
Secondary
Market
28.2%
Certus
29.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.4%
Result
Market
27.7%
Certus
29.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.9%
Settled
English Premier League · 2026-08-22 22:00
· Certus
Everton vs Crystal PalaceEverton vs Crystal Palace
Predicted1-1
Actual2-0
In the first round of the Premier League, both sides have core injuries, the core configuration [2.5] is fine, the second choice is home and away and away [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Everton and Crystal Palace usher in the first round of the 2026-27 English Premier League season. According to the latest information retrieved from the Internet, both sides are facing the hidden danger of missing their main midfielders at the beginning of the season: Jarrad Branthwaite, the core of Everton's defense, and James Garner, the midfielder, are both absent due to injuries; while Crystal Palace has also lost midfielder Adam Wharton, which will greatly reduce the midfield control and smoothness of offensive and defensive transitions of both sides.
In terms of market pricing, the implied probability of a main victory falls at 44.1% (lower than the high confidence threshold of 45%), and the implied probability of a draw reaches 27.7%, which is in the typical gray area of victory and defeat. Under the condition that the Asian handicap (asian_handicap) does not open a tie or a shallow handicap, according to the strict handicap availability and defense strategy, the forced configuration of the home and away sum or the handicap home and away sum (handicap_had) as the core push should be completely avoided. Taking into account the slow start effect of the first round and the difficulties caused by the reorganization of the midfield and backfield lineups of the two armies, the game is expected to fall into a positional battle. The goal score [2.5] with a self-assessed probability of over 60% is the executable asset with the highest certainty in this game.
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