Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.2%
Secondary
Market
33.3%
Certus
33.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.2%
Result
Market
29.6%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.4%
Settled
English Premier League · 2026-08-22 22:00
· Certus
Ipswich vs SunderlandIpswich vs Sunderland
Predicted1-1
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Battle situation background and lineup dynamics:
This game is the first round of the 2026/27 English Premier League. Ipswich Town faces Sunderland at the Parkway Stadium. As the first game of the season, both sides are in the verification period of their status and tactics, and there is currently no league point burden. In terms of lineup, according to the latest on-the-spot search information, Yeshiva midfielders Azor Matusiwa and Jack Taylor are injured, and their pre-match evaluation is doubtful; Sternland's defense is facing potential injuries to Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete, which means that there are variables in the defensive stability and ball rhythm of both sides in the midfield and backcourt.
Tactics and market deduction:
Looking back at the track of the pre-season warm-up matches, Ivanovich showed a certain degree of defensive discipline (including a 3-0 victory over Huali Jiannu and a 1-0 victory over Le Hafer), and New Zealand also had a clean record of defeating Lens and West Ham. On the market's implied probability side, the latest price of the main win is 2.39 (about 37.1% after deducting margins), and the probability of a tie is as high as 29.6%. The distribution of these three items is extremely flat, which belongs to the typical "grey area" with high tie risk.
According to the system decision tree, in the absence of Asian Handicap [0] as a defensive channel in the available handicap list, high-risk games of host, object and direction must be avoided. Considering that the tactical layout of both sides in the first game of the season is often conservative, and the market's low-range pricing of 2.5 goals has been pushed down to 1.72, institutions have obvious intentions to prevent the small-ball pattern. We predict that this game will fall into a stalemate battle where every inch of ground must be contested. The core configuration is to lock the goal size [2.5], and the second choice is to handicap home and away and away [+1] to express the unbeaten expectation of the new team.
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