Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Secondary
Market
48.5%
Aestus
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.2%
Result
Market
48.5%
Aestus
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.2%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-07-26 20:00
· Aestus
Young Boys Bern vs SionYoung Boys Bern vs Sion
Predicted2-1
Actual4-2
Core setup [3.5] Narrow, second pick home win, model estimate score 2:1.
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Based on the on-the-spot data of the Swiss Super League Young Boys' home game against Sion, the market set the goal threshold at 3.5 goals (high 2.10 | low 1.65), reflecting the agency's inertia pricing on the volume and opening style of past matches between the two teams. However, from the cross-validation of implicit probability anchoring and wave bile distribution (the optimal order is 2:1, 1:1, 2:2):
Win-Loss Direction: The implied probability of a home win for the Young Boys is 48.5%. Although they have home court advantage, they lack a significant premium margin; draws (23.5%) and away wins (28.0%) are split, showing that the home team is not overwhelmingly strong.
Total goal trend: Large and small goals are priced at 3.5 in the high market line, and small goals are priced at 1.65 in the low zone, which is highly supportive. The model calculates that the total number of goals scored in the game falls between 2 and 3 goals (such as 2:1 or 1:1), and less than 3.5 goals has a robust data safety margin.
Asset Allocation Strategy: Use [3.5] Fine as the first core configuration, and Main Win as the secondary configuration to ensure accurate matching of the probability of results while controlling risks.
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