Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.6%
Secondary
Market
59.3%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Result
Market
59.1%
Aestus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.6%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-07-26 22:30
· Aestus
Lugano vs VaduzLugano vs Vaduz
Predicted2-0
Actual2-1
Core setup for home win, secondary pick [3.5] Small: Lock in home control for a narrow win
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Swiss Super League match, Lugano will face Juados at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, institutions have given Lugano considerable support. The initial market pricing of the home win fell to 1.36, and the implied winning rate after deducting margins is about 65.0%, reflecting the objective gap between the two teams in terms of lineup depth and home and away momentum.
In terms of goal handicap, the agency has set a baseline of 3.5 goals, and the low area (fine) market pricing are as low as 1.56, which shows that the market is highly biased towards low-scoring results. It is expected that the home team will focus on controlling the ball and the rhythm of the game after taking the lead, and the offensive will not be too violent. Combined with the most popular wave bile distribution (2:1, 2:0), this game is biased toward Lugano's home victory, with a predicted score of 2:0.
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