Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.6%
Secondary
Market
56.0%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Result
Market
63.3%
Aestus
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.6%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-07-26 22:30
· Aestus
St. Gallen vs ZurichSt. Gallen vs Zurich
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [3.5] Detailed echoes a 2:1 mid-low score prediction
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Combat Power and Pricing Positioning: In this Swiss Super League match between St. Gallen and Zurich at home, the market gives St. Gallen a home win of 1.44 (the implied winning rate is about 61.2% after removing the margin), combined with a one-goal handicap (home [-1] 1.86). Market pricing gives St. Gallen significant recognition of their home court dominance, with a clear winning rate advantage.
Number of goals and wave structure: The baseline for the total number of goals is as high as 3.5 goals, but the market pricing in the low zone ([3.5] fine) are as low as 1.65, reflecting that the agency is not optimistic that this campaign will evolve into a high-scoring offensive battle. The top three favorites are 2:1, 2:0 and 1:1, all pointing to a small victory for the home team or a low-medium score pattern.
Configuration tactics: Under the background that the main winning direction is clear and the low area of the large and small market is under pressure, the core direction is to lock the home base to win; with [3.5] fine as the second choice for defense, it is in line with the estimated score prediction of 2:1.
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