Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.3%
Secondary
Market
77.4%
Ordo
63.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.2%
Result
Market
77.4%
Ordo
63.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.2%
Settled
Copa do Brasil · 2026-08-03 03:00
· Ordo
Palmeiras vs FortalezaPalmeiras vs Fortaleza
Predicted2-0
Actual3-0
Core configuration [2.5] Thin and a home win as the second pick serves as a solid foundation
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Lineup Dynamics
In this Brazilian Cup, Palmeiras hosted Fortaleza. Palmeiras is known for their highly effective tactical execution and defensive stability at home in cup matches, with strong home control. Fortaleza is expected to play away against the enemy with low post defense and counter-attacking tactics, but facing Palmeiras' high pressing and ball control rhythm, there is little attacking space up front.
Market Pricing and Margin Bias
The market offers a home win of 1.14 (with a hidden win rate of 77.4% after margin adjustment), reflecting the significant gap in strength and home advantage. The over/under baseline is set at 2.5 goals, with the high (over) priced at 1.70; however, the top three correct score market pricing are 2:0 (4.9), 1:0 (5.6), and 3:0 (5.8), indicating a high concentration of score distribution in Palmeiras' 1-2 goal margin. In the cup double-legged knockout format, after gaining a 2-goal lead, Palmeiras usually slows their pace to maintain possession and wear down the game, striking at the high ball rate. Therefore, [2.5] Slim offers excellent data contrast value, combined with home win as a cornerstone setup.
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