Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.4%
Ordo
37.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.8%
Settled
Copa do Brasil · 2026-08-03 06:30
· Ordo
Internacional vs CorinthiansInternacional vs Corinthians
Predicted1-0
Actual2-0
[Cup Preview] Core Setup [2.5] Fine, Secondary Pick Main [0] Water Run
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Match Attributes
This match is the knockout stage of the 2026 Brazil Cup, featuring the opponents Internacional and Corinthès. Under the cup knockout format, both sides generally adopted a relatively restrained, grounded defensive strategy. Internacional has the advantage of home advantage but tends to be conservative in attacking efficiency, while Corinthians mostly rely on low drops and counterattacks in away matches, resulting in a slower overall pace of the match.
Data Pricing and Risk Structure
Scattered Win and Loss Direction: The market's implied probability of a home win is only 39.4%, a draw is 32.1%, indicating insufficient directional confidence (< 45%).
Extremely Narrow Total Goals: Goals under is based on [2.5] goals, with low (under) market pricing as low as 1.44, indicating a very high market consensus for low xG and dull draws.
Configuration Logic
According to the tactical decision tree, when the outcome is in a gray area and the risk of a draw is high, it is not advisable to use a home-and-away draw or handicap as the core setup. [2.5] Small is the asset with the highest confidence across the market; The second pick is Home[0] (Asian handicap draw), which can effectively utilize the home advantage and provide full loss protection in case of a draw.
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