Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
47.9%
Ordo
42.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.7%
Settled
Copa do Brasil · 2026-08-03 05:00
· Ordo
Mirassol vs GremioMirassol vs Gremio
Predicted1-0
Actual1-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Fighting Spirit Landscape
In this Brazilian Cup, Mirasso hosted Grêmio. Under the cup knockout format, the visiting team Grêmio faces a dual strategic choice, posing a high risk of rotating key players; In contrast, the home team Mirasso enjoys home advantage and a strong desire to "challenge the top," expected to adopt high-pressure defense and targeted counterattacks.
Market Pricing and Data Structures
Steering Wheel Gray Zone Risk: The latest implied probability of a home win in the market is 47.9%, but the probability of a draw is significantly higher than 28.9%. Against the backdrop of high tie risk, the win direction lacks sufficient marginal win rates.
Extreme Goal Suppression: In the full-match [2.5] goals over/under market, the low (under) is priced as low as 1.62 (implied probability about 61.7%), and the top three correct score asset allocation priorities are '1:0', '1:1', and '0:0'. The market structure strongly favors a low-score pattern, reflecting both sides' tactical mindset prioritizing on-the-spot defense.
Executable Configuration Logic
Given that the steering wheel is in the gray zone and the probability of a draw exceeds the 28% threshold, a decision tree red line is triggered: No Absolute Win as Primary. The highest confidence asset lock is [2.5] fine; The second choice uses Asian handicap Home[0] to achieve a run-down defense and hedge against the risk of a draw. Estimated score for the full match: 1:0.
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