Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.7%
Secondary
Market
65.3%
Certus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.8%
Result
Market
65.3%
Certus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.8%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-09 20:00
· Certus
Malmo vs DegerforsMalmo vs Degerfors
Predicted2-0
Actual1-2
Core configuration [3.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and home [-1]
Primary[3.5] Under✓Secondarymain[-1]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This match is the 16th round of the 2026 Swedish Super League. Malmö FF, the traditional powerhouse in the league, will face Degerfors IF, which is deep in the relegation zone, at home.
Record and Fighting Will: Ma Mo is currently ranked 7th in the league with 23 points in 15 games. The overall performance is far below expectations, and there has been a turbulent coaching change in the middle of the season. The team urgently needs to score all three points at home against the underdogs to revive morale. The away team Digakos is ranked 15th with only 10 points, and is under great pressure to avoid relegation. In addition, it has only scored 12 goals in 15 games so far this season. It is expected that away games will be dominated by extremely intensive defense and lack the ability to actively attack.
Injury Impact: The Marmo lineup is facing a serious test. Midfielder Anders Christiansen and defense stalwart Pontus Jansson are both out for a long time due to injuries. Also, the main fullback Busanello and midfielder Kurtulus are suspended. The team's creativity and defensive stability have been weakened. As for Digakos, main defender Juhani Pikkarainen is out for the season due to a torn cruciate ligament, and there are also hidden dangers in the defense.
Market Pricing and Tactical Preview: The market gives strong support for the main win of 1.35, and the first choice is 2:0. At the same time, the goal line is set at the high level of [3.5]. Taking into account the extremely weak offensive power of the visiting team, Ma Mo has a higher probability of achieving a clean sheet; however, due to his own extensive injury, Ma Mo's offensive end is also difficult to score an extremely big score. In the absence of a tie handicap, the [3.5] fine handicap has become the best asset allocation with great defensive power, while the handicap home and away and home [-1], which are optimistic about the home team's two-goal win, can be used as reasonable second choices.
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