Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+15.6%
Secondary
Market
58.5%
Certus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Result
Market
58.5%
Certus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-09 22:30
· Certus
Halmstads vs GAISHalmstads vs GAIS
Predicted0-2
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice of host and guest and guest wins
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the Swedish Super League in the 2026 season. According to the latest league data in August 2026, the home team Halmstads BK is in an extremely sluggish state, with only 1 win, 4 draws, 10 losses and 7 points in 15 games, ranking at the bottom of the league (16th). During the period, they conceded 31 goals and have suffered a losing streak recently. In terms of lineup, the main defender R. Wendin Thomasson has accumulated yellow cards and is suspended. In addition, many regular players such as K. Holmen are absent due to injuries. The defense is facing a great test.
The visiting team GAIS currently ranks 9th with 20 points with 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. Although the team suffered a 0-6 defeat to North Zealand in the UEFA Europa League qualifiers on July 30, they have had a complete rest period of 10 days before this league game and have excellent physical reserves. Garth's defensive performance in the league this season is solid, conceding only 15 goals in 15 games. Facing Hamstads, who is extremely lacking in offensive power (averaging less than 1 goal per game), he has a clear advantage.
In terms of market, the customer win price is as low as 1.51 (implied winning rate is about 58.5%), which fully reflects the gap between the points and current situation between the two parties. In the case where the Jockey Club has not offered an Asian handicap (no ties or handicap defences), the cost-effectiveness of blindly pursuing low-paying customer wins is limited. Considering that Hamstads has a certain intention to defend the iron barrel formation (the two sides just tied 1-1 in late July), and that Garth's away firepower is not top-notch, it is expected that this will be a low-scoring away win. Therefore, the goal size [2.5] has the best data support and error tolerance.
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