Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.2%
Secondary
Market
63.8%
Ordo
54.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.2%
Result
Market
63.8%
Ordo
54.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.2%
Settled
UE Conference · 2026-07-31 01:00
· Ordo
Nordsjaelland vs GAISNordsjaelland vs GAIS
Predicted2-1
Actual6-0
Core allocation [2.5] high, second pick home win
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this European Association League match, the Danish Super League team Los Chalant will face the Swedish Super League Garth at home. Los Charante has maintained a high-intensity style of pass control and rapid advancement for many years. When playing at home, he has strong penalty area penetration and continuous pressure capabilities on the offensive end. The market gives the main win a low price of 1.38 (the implied winning rate is about 63.8% after deducting the margin), which objectively reflects the ladder gap between the two teams in European war experience and overall lineup value.
Although Garth is extremely resilient in Sweden, when the defense faces high-frequency conduction and counter-pressure, it is easy for gaps to appear in the side defense and the center defense. The data premium baseline for this game is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (big goal) price is as low as 1.60, indicating that market funds and institutional actuaries have a high degree of consensus on the offensive in this game or the home team's unilateral output of high scores. Considering that Los Chalante has plenty of firepower at home and has excellent confidence in the size of the goals, the priority is to choose [2.5] Big with stable income in terms of configuration, and the second choice is Main Win for combination promotion.
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