Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Secondary
Market
82.5%
Ordo
67.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.7%
Result
Market
82.5%
Ordo
67.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.7%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this European Association League match, Swiss super team Sion will face Badi at home. The market offers a very deep discount of 1.07 for the main win, and the implied probability of the main win is as high as 82.5%, which shows that there is a significant gap between the two sides in terms of overall lineup strength and competitive level.
From the analysis of data model and market pricing, the market sets the benchmark line of goal size at 3.5 goals (small goals are priced in the low zone of 1.75), and the hot spots are 3:0 (5.3), 2:0 (5.5) and 1:0 (7.5). This reflects that while Sion has absolute dominance at home, Buddy's attacking methods are extremely limited and it is difficult to find space to score as a guest. At the tactical level, after establishing an advantage, Sion is likely to slow down and control the game to consume game time and control the risk of injuries. Comprehensive evaluation, the estimated score is 3:0, and the total number of goals in the game will be suppressed within 3.5 goals with the highest degree of confidence. The combination of handicap home and away and home [-2] can be used as an efficient configuration.
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