Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Secondary
Market
56.6%
Ordo
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.4%
Result
Market
56.6%
Ordo
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.4%
Settled
UE Conference · 2026-07-31 00:00
· Ordo
Ilves vs StalanIlves vs Stalan
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
Core setup is [2.5] high, second pick home win hedged, estimated score 2-1.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Combat Power Analysis
The Finnish Super League team Ilves** has a significant artificial turf advantage at home. Their tactical style favors high pressure and fast wing advancement, and they have strong home offensive capabilities. The Icelandic Super League team ** Stjarnan has the characteristics of a typical Nordic team, with strong frontcourt counterattacks. However, in the European away games, the problems of disconnected defense formation and slow filling of the wings are more prominent.
Market Pricing and Data Verification
The trend of large size is obvious: The market has lowered the over price of [Goal size 2.5] to 1.52. After removing the water, the implied winning rate is as high as 61.5%. The market has a high degree of consensus on the open attack situation.
Direction Certainty: Home win 1.56, the implied probability is about 56.6%. The top three favorites are 2:1, 1:1 and 1:0 respectively, indicating that Isweis has a better home victory rate, but it is difficult to achieve an absolute clean sheet on the defensive end.
Asset Allocation Logic
In the context of an open tactical confrontation between the two sides and market pricing that is highly skewed towards the number of goals scored, [[2.5] Big] is the executable asset with the highest confidence in the game; the second choice is paired with [Main Win] as the auxiliary direction configuration.
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