Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.2%
Ordo
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Settled
UE Conference · 2026-07-31 00:30
· Ordo
FCI Levia vs GoteborgFCI Levia vs Goteborg
Predicted1-2
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup layout:
In this European Association League match, Estonia's top team FCI Lividia plays at home against the traditional Swiss Super League team Gothenburg. Gotenberg has the upper hand in terms of overall league intensity and players' personal abilities, but Lividia has good pressing toughness in home games. At the tactical level, Gotenberg's away style tends to be proactive and side-suppressing, while Lividia often adopts a quick counterattack strategy in European competitions, and the offensive and defensive transition rhythm of both sides is expected to be faster.
Market Pricing and Data Interpretation:
The market has given an obvious directional gray area pricing for this game (away win 2.14 / home win 2.66 / draw 3.45). The away win rate is about 41.2%, which does not reach the absolute dominance threshold. However, the goal size [2.5] high area (Over) pricing is as low as 1.56 (implied probability is about 64.1%), showing that the market has a high degree of consensus on the two teams breaking out in a goal battle. Considering that confidence in the direction of victory is relatively dispersed, the configuration with the highest data certainty and the best asset security is the first choice.
Risk Management and Asset Allocation:
In view of the certain risk of draw in the Gothenburg away game, the directional asset adopts Asian Handicap[0] for draw defense; the core configuration is locked at [2.5] Big to align with the goal scoring pattern with high market expectations. The estimated score is 1:2.
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