Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
46.1%
Ordo
42.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.9%
Settled
UE Conference · 2026-07-31 00:00
· Ordo
Pelick vs DebrecenPelick vs Debrecen
Predicted1-0
Actual0-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Event Layout
Pyunik has good defensive tenacity at home in the UEFA Europa League, and its tactical system favors a tight midfield and backcourt structure; the away team Debrecen is expected to adopt mid-low blocking and defensive counterattack strategies when visiting. Both sides will significantly tighten their defense in the knockout stage. It is expected that the start will be cautious and tentative, and the pace of the game will be slow.
Market Pricing and Data Calibration
Win and Loss Pricing: The main win is 1.91 (the implied winning rate is about 46.1% after removing the margin), falling in the data gray area of 42%–52%, and the confidence in the direction of victory has not yet reached an absolute advantage.
Large and thin ball structure: Under the 2.5-goal baseline, the "thin" low-zone pricing is only 1.72 (implied winning rate of nearly 58%). Both market funds and actuarial models are strongly tilted towards the low-scoring pattern.
Configuration thinking
Due to insufficient confidence in the subject and direction, based on the decision tree, the [2.5] detail with the highest market consensus and the strongest data support is given priority as the core configuration (Primary); the second choice is paired with the Asian Handicap Main[0] (Asian Handicap) as a defensive asset to effectively hedge the risk of a draw.
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