Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.6%
Secondary
Market
22.1%
Certus
28.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.7%
Result
Market
53.8%
Certus
45.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.0%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-08-09 22:30
· Certus
St. Gallen vs LuzernSt. Gallen vs Luzern
Predicted2-1
Actual2-2
核心配置 [3.5] 細，次選讓球主客和 和[-1]
Primary[3.5] Under✗Secondary和[-1]✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
St. Gallen showed excellent multi-line combat capabilities at the beginning of the 2026-27 season. They won the first two rounds of the league and traveled to Moldova in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers on August 6, defeating Shulev 3-1. However, there are only 3 days of rest before this game, and there is a key match in the second round of the UEFA Europa League next week. The team is bound to face a considerable physical test and a relatively large lineup rotation.
The visiting team Lucerne had an extremely sluggish start to the season. They suffered a losing streak in the first two rounds of the league and conceded 6 goals (1:6 goals scored). They are currently at the bottom of the standings. Many injured players including Levin Winkler and Demir Xhemalija are absent, and the defense is full of holes. However, under the strong pressure of losing streak, they are very likely to adopt a more conservative posture in this game in order to stop losses.
The initial market price is 1.64 for the home win (implied win rate of about 54%). Taking into account St. Gallen's rotation risks, it will be difficult to attack and win. In terms of goal size, the baseline of [3.5] gives a relatively ample space. Combined with the tiredness of the home team and the weak attack power of the visiting team, the pace of this game is not expected to be too fast. St. Gallen is expected to get through with a small victory in an economical way. A 2-1 result is a more reasonable expectation.
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