Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.5%
Ordo
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.8%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-08-02 20:00
· Ordo
Vaduz vs St. GallenVaduz vs St. Gallen
Predicted1-2
Actual2-3
Core setup [3.5] is fine, with St. Gallen [0] as the second pick to defend against the risk of a draw
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this match, Vaudus hosted St. Gallen. From market structure and actuarial data, the clear gap in strength and a strict goal-scoring defense pattern were observed:
Strength and Market Positioning: The latest market price gives the away team St. Gallen a win of 1.73, with an implied win rate of 50.9% after margin play. As the home team, Vaudus is recognized with a win rate of only 25.5%, indicating a substantial gap in overall strength and league roster depth between the two sides.
Expected Goals Calculated: The baseline for the data premium for this match is set at 3.5 goals, but the low zone (under goals) is priced as high as 1.55 (implied probability about 62%), while the high zone (over goals) is as high as 2.29. The top three favorites for correct score are 1:1, 1:2, and 0:1, clearly indicating that the market is highly concentrated in the mid-to-low scoreline range of 2 to 3 goals.
Risk Management and Execution Configuration: St. Gallen's win rate is in the gray zone near 50%. Considering the implied probability of a draw reaches 23.5%, simply asset allocation on the win carries some volatility risk. Therefore, set the higher-certainty [3.5] Detail as the core configuration and use Customer[0] for draw and flow defense.
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