Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Secondary
Market
35.0%
Ordo
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+10.0%
Result
Market
35.0%
Ordo
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+10.0%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Swiss Super League match, Grasshoppers hosted Lugano. Based on the season's opener performances and overall lineup strength, the visiting team Lugano has demonstrated strong sustained pressing and multi-pronged scoring on offense; In contrast, the Grasshoppers' early season defense had low help defensive efficiency, and when the system transitioned, the midfield and defense easily exposed space.
In terms of market pricing, institutions have offered an away win of 1.85 (with an implied win rate of about 47.6% after margin adjustment), indicating a very clear market sentiment. Meanwhile, the over area (over goals) for goals under [2.5] is priced as low as 1.58, indicating strong market expectations for a high score. Considering Grasshoppers' home games struggle to contract for long periods and Lugano's efficient transition attacks, this match could easily turn into a bold open attack. Therefore, in terms of allocation, the core asset is the most reliable [2.5] big , with the secondary pick reinforcing the away win to match the strength gap.
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