Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.8%
Ordo
43.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.2%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-08-02 00:00
· Ordo
Basel vs LausanneBasel vs Lausanne
Predicted2-1
Actual0-1
Core setup [3.5] Detailed, secondary choice is main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
According to the latest market implied market pricing and pricing structure, Baslavia has a home win probability of about 48.2% (market pricing 1.83), placing them in the high uncertainty 'gray zone' of 42%–52%. In the correct score market, 1:1 (7.25) and 2:1** (7.25) are tied for the highest popularity, indicating that market funds are cautious about whether Basuli can successfully break through the opponent's hand, with a significant draw risk (24.2%).
The tactical and market structure features are as follows:
Directional win rate lacks sufficient margin: The home win probability does not reach the 52% safety line and lacks sufficient marginal advantage, so directly choosing "home win" or "home handicap win" takes on excessive risk.
Highly skewed goal structure: The baseline for under goals is as high as [3.5], but the market pricing for 'under goals' are as low as 1.53 (with a probability of over 60% after being eliminated). This reflects that the current market model favors low-score matches in the rhythm and efficiency of both teams' offense and defense.
Strategic Allocation: According to the P0 decision tree rules, when confidence in direction is lacking, prioritize the highest win rate by focusing on the goal size or small. It is recommended to list [3.5] detail as a Primary asset; Secondary is paired with asian_handicap Main[0] to provide draw-and-flow defense.
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