Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.0%
Ordo
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.0%
Settled
Swiss Super League · 2026-08-02 02:30
· Ordo
Thun vs Young Boys BernThun vs Young Boys Bern
Predicted1-2
Actual0-6
Core configuration [3.5] Fine, secondary choice [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Combat Power Comparison
Duane plays at home with strong aggressive pressing and home advantage, but his overall squad depth and tactical stability still lag behind traditional powerhouses like young players. Although the young players are playing away and facing slight squad adjustments, they still dominate midfield control and counterattack efficiency. Both teams clearly counter their tactics, making it easy to get into a tug-of-war in midfield.
Market Pricing and Data Calibration
Currently, the market offers an average of 2.43 for home win, 3.75 for a draw, and 2.20 for away wins. After margining, the probability of away win is about 40.1% and home win 36.3%, making it a typical gray area average market with insufficient confidence in one-way wins. The over/under baseline is set high at 3.5 goals, and with both sides having defensive concerns and cautious tactics at the start of the season, the probability of scoring more than 4 goals in a full match is significantly overestimated.
Strategic Configuration
Since the direction of the outcome is highly uncertain, it is advisable to avoid the win-win market. Core configuration is focused on the highest self-rated confidence [3.5] detail; For second-tier assets, use Away[0] (Young Player Draw Handicap) for run-down defense. If the result is a draw, you can fully refund and guarantee your principal, with an estimated full-match score of 1:2.
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