Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
82.2%
Ordo
67.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.8%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 03:00
· Ordo
Benfica vs St. GallenBenfica vs St. Gallen
Predicted3-0
Actual5-0
Core configuration for the handicap home/away draw, home [-2], with the second pick being the half-time home win
PrimaryMain[-2]—SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
From the perspective of market pricing and tactical matchup, Benfica showed a significant advantage in level against St. Gallen at home. The implied probability of the market's home win is as high as 82.2%, combined with the home and away handicap and the deep market pricing of [-2], reflecting the huge gap between the two teams in the overall lineup depth and offensive dimension.
Tactical matchup and lineup gap
High-pressure control at home: Benfica has always maintained a very high ball possession rate and frontcourt pressing intensity at home in European competitions, which can effectively suppress the opponent's advancement and transformation capabilities in the midfield.
Away defense test and wing loopholes: When St. Gallen faces top teams, the away defense line is prone to problems such as formation disconnection and insufficient protection for two penalty kicks in the penalty area under continuous impact.
Risk Tips and Configuration Strategies
This game is a cup match, so be aware of the risk of substitutions after taking the lead and the home team controlling the field and slowing down the tempo. The top two most popular football matches are 3:0 and 2:0, which shows that the market highly recognizes Benfica’s ability to keep clean sheets and win by multiple goals. Therefore, the configuration uses Handicap Home and Away and Home[-2] as the core assets, supplemented by Halftime Home Win to consolidate the certainty of the start.
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