Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.2%
Ordo
38.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.4%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 02:30
· Ordo
Anderlecht vs HammarbyAnderlecht vs Hammarby
Predicted2-1
Actual3-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this UEFA Europa League match, Andrzej hosts Hammarby. According to the latest market pricing (home win 2.14 | draw 3.30 | away win 2.75), the implied probability of home win after removing the margin is about 41.2%, which does not reach the 45% clear threshold of victory and defeat, and is a typical gray area disagreement game.
In terms of tactics and data, the data premium baseline is set at 2.5 goals, the high zone (big goal) pricing reaches 1.67, and the market’s implied probability of playing is close to 60%, which shows that the two teams’ defensive fault tolerance rate is low under the cup system and the pace of offensive and defensive transitions is too fast. In view of the fact that both sides have excellent side attack and conversion capabilities, the goal size ([2.5] large) is the asset with the highest confidence in the overall data of the game. In terms of victory and defeat defense, since the probability of a draw (26.7%) cannot be ignored, combining it with the Asian Handicap Tie Handicap (Main [0]) can effectively achieve a draw hedging strategy.
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