Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.2%
Ordo
40.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.1%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 01:00
· Ordo
Hradec Kralove vs TromsoHradec Kralove vs Tromso
Predicted0-1
Actual3-1
Core configuration [2.5] is detailed, and secondary picks [0] guard against losses in a draw
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup situation
This is a UEFA Europa League match, with the Czech club Horadidijk playing against the Norwegian powerhouse Trinsø at home. Under the nature of the cup, the home team Hollardijk has a high fighting spirit due to its home momentum and has the momentum to defeat the opponent; however, Terinsu has a slight advantage in overall European war experience and tactical execution. Taking into account the cautious pace of cup matches, both sides are expected to start with a solid defense to avoid conceding goals too early.
Market Pricing and Risk Assessment
The latest market pricing is 2.88 for home win, 3.35 for draw, and 2.04 for guest win. After removing the margin, the implied probability of guest win is about 43.2%, which falls into the data gray area of 42%–52%. The confidence in the direction of victory does not reach an absolute advantage. The probability of a draw is 26.3% and the top three teams (1:1, 0:1, 1:2) all point to a balance of low scores and extreme urgency.
Configuration Strategy
In view of the fact that the details of the real-time lineup are not complete (market data anchoring mode is adopted) and the direction confidence is insufficient, the first choice is to use the most stable [2.5] details as the core asset; the second choice is to use the handicap Customer[0] as a defensive configuration to prevent draws and losses.
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