Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
44.5%
Ordo
40.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.7%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 02:30
· Ordo
Ferencvaros vs TwenteFerencvaros vs Twente
Predicted1-2
Actual2-2
Core allocation [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] to hedge and draw
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup: Hungarian powerhouse Ferenc Wallis has a strong "down to overcome" fighting spirit and home momentum in home games, but Eredivisie powerhouse Chuandi has a hierarchical advantage in the overall tactical system and the rhythm of offensive and defensive transitions. In the cup match, both teams have open offensive and defensive characteristics, and the offensive and defensive rhythm is expected to be faster.
Market Pricing and Data Interpretation: The market offers a discounted price of 1.98 for away wins, 2.5 total goals, and 1.50 for high goals (big goals), reflecting that funds and models are highly optimistic about the open attack between the two sides. The highest rankings of the two teams are concentrated at 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, which all point to a very high probability of scoring for both teams.
Allocation strategy and risk control: The implied probability of Chuandi's away win (approximately 44.5%) falls in the 42%–52% gray area, and there is uncertainty about lineup rotation in the cup. It is not appropriate to make the first heavy bet directly on the direction of victory or defeat. Therefore, [2.5] Da, which has a high degree of market consensus and a self-assessed hit rate of 61%, is used as the core allocation asset, and the second choice is paired with Customer[0] for tie-breaking defense.
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