Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
36.8%
Ordo
35.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.9%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 02:00
· Ordo
PFC CSKA Sofia vs QarabagPFC CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This Europa League match presents a typical cup match pattern of high uncertainty and confrontation:
Three wins and losses enter the fuzzy gray area: The market’s implied probability (home win 33.6% | draw 29.6% | away win 36.8%) shows that neither side has absolute dominance. CSKA Sofia has a slight fighting spirit bonus based on its home court, but Qarabak's system maturity and tactical execution in the European competition in recent years are slightly better.
Total goal expectations are significantly lower: Market data points to a low price of 1.64 for [2.5] (implied probability is about 60%), and the boldness rankings are prioritized at 1:1, 0:1 and 1:0. In the first round of the cup match, the tactical layout of both sides tended to shrink the defense, which was full of probing, and the situation could easily turn into a midfield tug-of-war.
Executable configuration strategy: According to the tactical actuarial decision tree, when the highest winning rate in the direction is less than 45% and the probability of a draw is high, it is forbidden to force the sum of host and guest (result) as the first choice. Therefore, the [2.5] detail with the highest hit rate certainty is set as the core asset (Primary), and the Ke[0] is used as the secondary choice (Secondary) for draw water leakage defense.
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