Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
53.1%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.7%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 01:00
· Ordo
Pafos vs Hajduk SplitPafos vs Hajduk Split
Predicted1-0
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
A comprehensive breakdown of the Europa League knockout match between Pafos FC vs Hajduk Split from the perspective of event structure and market pricing:
Market Pricing and Implied Win Rate: Home win 1.66 corresponds to a rake probability of about 53.1%, draw 3.50 (25.2%), away win 4.05 (21.8%). The home team has gained a certain concession, but as a cup match, the market's hottest predictions are 1:0 (6.3) and 1:1 (6.6), which shows that the market has significant expectations for low scores and tug-of-war.
Cup Cup Risks and Tactical Game: This game has knockout and potential rotation risks. Shard, who plays away games in the cup, tends to adopt defense-based anti-counterattack tactics, which can easily compress the midfield space. Although Paphos has the home field advantage, in the two-leg or knockout format, the primary goal is to control the rhythm and prevent away goals, making it difficult to show an overly open offensive situation.
Configuration logic: Since the winning rate of the steering wheel is in the marginal gray area of 50%-53%, and the total goal baseline 2.5 subarea (1.88) has a higher probability of playing (self-evaluation 58%), set the [2.5] subdivision as the core asset (Primary) with the highest confidence; at the same time, cooperate with the Asian Handicap (Asian Handicap) main[0] As a secondary option, implement a defensive strategy of losing money in a draw.
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