Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Secondary
Market
53.2%
Ordo
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.1%
Result
Market
53.2%
Ordo
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.1%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-07-31 01:45
· Ordo
PAOK FC vs Dynamo KievPAOK FC vs Dynamo Kiev
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] high, second pick PAOK home win, predicted score 2:1.
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Europa League match, the Greek powerhouse PAOK will face the famous Ukrainian team Dynamo Kyiv at home.
Tactics and Strength Pattern: PAOK has a strong home atmosphere and high-pressure pressing tactics, with stable home offensive output; Dynamo Kyiv has rich experience in European competitions and a rapid counterattack threat. Both teams have a strong desire to attack and win in the first round/elimination stage of the cup competition system.
Market Pricing and Data Interpretation: The market initially opened PAOK with a home win price of 1.66 (the implied probability after de-extraction is about 53.2%), giving reasonable recognition to the home team. The goal size baseline is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (big goal) is priced as low as 1.62 (implied probability of about 57.7%), showing that the organization has great confidence in the ability of both sides to generate goals.
Asset Allocation Decision: PAOK's main winning probability is around 53%, and there are still certain fluctuations in the direction of winning alone; in contrast, the openness of the two teams' confrontation and the goal expectation are higher. Therefore, [2.5] Big is set as the Primary core asset with the highest degree of certainty, and the second choice is paired with PAOK Primary Win as a hedge and income supplement.
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