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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 55.6%

Certus 65.0%

+9.4%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 40.0%

—

Result

Market 20.1%

Certus 31.2%

+11.1%

Settled

Australian NPL - New South Wales · 2026-08-15 14:00 · Certus

APIA Leichhardt vs Southern Districts Raiders APIA Leichhardt vs Southern Districts Raiders

Predicted 1-1

Actual 3-1

Core configuration [3.5] fine, second choice handicap away [+1]

Primary [3.5] Under Secondary Guest[+1] Result Draw Goals O/U [3.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.41

Market implied 70.9%

Draw

4.4

Market implied 22.7%

Away win

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

半場主客和

Home win

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

Draw

2.68

Market implied 37.3%

Away win

4.85

Market implied 20.6%

半場入球大細

[1.5]

Over

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

Under

1.75

Market implied 57.1%

[1.5/2]

Over

2.33

Market implied 42.9%

Under

1.53

Market implied 65.4%

[2.5]

Over

3.95

Market implied 25.3%

Under

1.19

Market implied 84.0%

入球大細

[3/3.5]

Over

1.86

Market implied 53.8%

Under

1.84

Market implied 54.3%

[3.5]

Over

2.08

Market implied 48.1%

Under

1.66

Market implied 60.2%

[4.5]

Over

3.45

Market implied 29.0%

Under

1.25

Market implied 80.0%

球隊入球大細

主 [2.5] 大

2.33

Market implied 42.9%

主 [2.5] 細

1.53

Market implied 65.4%

主 [3.5] 大

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

主 [3.5] 細

1.16

Market implied 86.2%

客 [1.5] 大

2.85

Market implied 35.1%

客 [1.5] 細

1.36

Market implied 73.5%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

主 [1.5] 細

1.31

Market implied 76.3%

客 [0.5] 大

2.25

Market implied 44.4%

客 [0.5] 細

1.57

Market implied 63.7%

客 [1.5] 大

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

客 [1.5] 細

1.05

Market implied 95.2%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

2.22

Market implied 45.0%

和[-1]

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

客[+1]

2.4

Market implied 41.7%

主[-2]

3.85

Market implied 26.0%

和[-2]

4.45

Market implied 22.5%

客[+2]

1.52

Market implied 65.8%

半場讓球

主[-0.5/-1]

2.2

Market implied 45.5%

客[+0.5/+1]

1.59

Market implied 62.9%

讓球

主[-1]

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

客[+1]

1.96

Market implied 51.0%

波膽

Home

1:0

8.75

2:0

8.25

2:1

6.9

3:0

11.0

3:1

9.75

3:2

17.0

4:0

19.0

4:1

18.0

4:2

28.0

5:0

40.0

5:1

30.0

5:2

40.0

Draw

0:0

19.0

1:1

8.75

2:2

12.0

3:3

40.0

Away

0:1

22.0

0:2

30.0

1:2

14.0

0:3

60.0

1:3

35.0

2:3

30.0

0:4

150.0

1:4

80.0

2:4

70.0

0:5

600.0

1:5

300.0

2:5

300.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

3.8

2:0

6.0

2:1

9.75

3:0

14.5

3:1

28.0

3:2

80.0

4:0

50.0

4:1

80.0

4:2

300.0

5:0

200.0

5:1

400.0

5:2

800.0

Draw

0:0

3.95

1:1

6.5

2:2

35.0

3:3

500.0

Away

0:1

8.0

0:2

21.0

1:2

19.0

0:3

100.0

1:3

80.0

2:3

150.0

0:4

600.0

1:4

600.0

2:4

700.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

2000.0

2:5

4000.0

半全場

主-主

2.05

Market implied 48.8%

主-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

4.2

Market implied 23.8%

和-和

7.75

Market implied 12.9%

和-客

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

客-主

15.0

Market implied 6.7%

客-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

客-客

8.5

Market implied 11.8%

總入球

0球

19.0

Market implied 5.3%

1球

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

2球

4.1

Market implied 24.4%

3球

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

4球

4.2

Market implied 23.8%

5球

6.1

Market implied 16.4%

6球

10.0

Market implied 10.0%

7+球

11.5

Market implied 8.7%

入球單雙

單

1.86

Market implied 53.8%

雙

1.84

Market implied 54.3%

第一隊入球

主

1.37

Market implied 73.0%

無

19.0

Market implied 5.3%

客

2.78

Market implied 36.0%

Recent form

APIA Leichhardt

D D W W

Southern Districts Raiders

D W W W

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Southern Districts Raiders

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

Combat power and physical energy consumption: The biggest variable in this game is the extreme physical exhaustion and schedule pressure. The home team APIA Leichhardt is currently at the top of the league, but they fought with Sydney United for 120 minutes in the top 16 of the Australian Cup on August 12 and advanced after exchanging 12-yard shots. The visiting team SD Raiders also created a "cup miracle" on August 11, kicking penalty kicks to eliminate the Australian professional team Macarthur after 120 minutes. The main players of both sides are in serious physical red zones.

Fighting spirit and rotation expectations (latest updates in 2026): Both teams will face major battles in the history of the club in the middle of next week (August 18-19) - the top 8 of the Australian Cup will face the Australian professional league champions Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC respectively. As Leichhardt's league points have a certain error tolerance (2 points ahead of the second place and a significant advantage in goals scored), and the Southern District Wizards are ranked in the middle and lower reaches without obvious pressure to protect relegation, there is a high probability that the coaches of both sides will implement large-scale rotation in this league.

Market pricing bias: The data shows a baseline of 1.41 home wins and 3.5 goals scored. Although Leichhardt has the advantage, the implicit pricing of 1.41 obviously does not fully reflect the home team's heavy rotation and the risk that both sides will not be interested in playing. In the context of a duel between the second-line lineup and bottomed out physical fitness, the pace of the game will slow down significantly. The baseline of 3.5 goals gives plenty of room for the next game. It is expected that this will be a dull game, with a high chance of low goals and an upset result.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

APIA Leichhardt vs Southern Districts Raiders APIA Leichhardt vs Southern Districts Raiders

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球主客和

半場讓球

讓球

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

APIA Leichhardt

Southern Districts Raiders

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis