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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 64.8%

Certus 56.2%

-8.6%

Secondary

Market 50.0%

Certus 58.0%

+8.0%

Result

Market 64.8%

Certus 56.2%

-8.6%

Settled

Russian Premier · 2026-08-15 21:15 · Certus

CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh

Predicted 2-0

Actual 1-0

核心配置主勝，次選入球大細 [2.5] 細

Primary Home Secondary [2.5] Under Result Home Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.36

Market implied 73.5%

Draw

3.95

Market implied 25.3%

Away win

6.8

Market implied 14.7%

半場主客和

Home win

1.81

Market implied 55.2%

Draw

2.21

Market implied 45.2%

Away win

7.25

Market implied 13.8%

半場入球大細

[1.5]

Over

2.8

Market implied 35.7%

Under

1.37

Market implied 73.0%

[1.5/2]

Over

3.55

Market implied 28.2%

Under

1.24

Market implied 80.6%

[2.5]

Over

5.9

Market implied 16.9%

Under

1.08

Market implied 92.6%

入球大細

[2.5]

Over

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

Under

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

[2.5/3]

Over

2.12

Market implied 47.2%

Under

1.64

Market implied 61.0%

[3.5]

Over

3.05

Market implied 32.8%

Under

1.32

Market implied 75.8%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

1.62

Market implied 61.7%

主 [1.5] 細

2.15

Market implied 46.5%

主 [2.5] 大

2.98

Market implied 33.6%

主 [2.5] 細

1.33

Market implied 75.2%

客 [0.5] 大

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

客 [0.5] 細

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

客 [1.5] 大

4.75

Market implied 21.1%

客 [1.5] 細

1.13

Market implied 88.5%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.63

Market implied 61.3%

主 [0.5] 細

2.13

Market implied 46.9%

主 [1.5] 大

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

主 [1.5] 細

1.2

Market implied 83.3%

客 [0.5] 大

3.4

Market implied 29.4%

客 [0.5] 細

1.26

Market implied 79.4%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

2.26

Market implied 44.2%

和[-1]

3.25

Market implied 30.8%

客[+1]

2.55

Market implied 39.2%

主[-2]

4.25

Market implied 23.5%

和[-2]

4.15

Market implied 24.1%

客[+2]

1.5

Market implied 66.7%

波膽

Home

1:0

5.7

2:0

5.7

2:1

7.0

3:0

8.5

3:1

11.5

3:2

28.0

4:0

17.0

4:1

23.0

4:2

40.0

5:0

40.0

5:1

40.0

5:2

80.0

Draw

0:0

9.5

1:1

7.5

2:2

18.0

3:3

70.0

Away

0:1

15.0

0:2

30.0

1:2

19.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

50.0

2:3

50.0

0:4

400.0

1:4

250.0

2:4

250.0

0:5

1000.0

1:5

800.0

2:5

800.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

3.05

2:0

5.6

2:1

14.5

3:0

15.0

3:1

60.0

3:2

300.0

4:0

80.0

4:1

250.0

4:2

800.0

5:0

400.0

5:1

800.0

5:2

3000.0

Draw

0:0

2.47

1:1

8.5

2:2

80.0

3:3

1500.0

Away

0:1

8.0

0:2

40.0

1:2

50.0

0:3

400.0

1:3

400.0

2:3

700.0

0:4

2000.0

1:4

2000.0

2:4

4000.0

0:5

5000.0

1:5

5000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

2.0

Market implied 50.0%

主-和

16.0

Market implied 6.2%

主-客

50.0

Market implied 2.0%

和-主

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

和-和

5.7

Market implied 17.5%

和-客

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

客-主

23.0

Market implied 4.3%

客-和

16.0

Market implied 6.2%

客-客

11.5

Market implied 8.7%

總入球

0球

9.5

Market implied 10.5%

1球

4.35

Market implied 23.0%

2球

3.35

Market implied 29.9%

3球

3.75

Market implied 26.7%

4球

5.2

Market implied 19.2%

5球

8.75

Market implied 11.4%

6球

18.0

Market implied 5.6%

7+球

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

入球單雙

單

1.87

Market implied 53.5%

雙

1.83

Market implied 54.6%

第一隊入球

主

1.33

Market implied 75.2%

無

9.5

Market implied 10.5%

客

3.5

Market implied 28.6%

Recent form

CSKA Moscow

D D W

2026-08-09 羅斯托夫 0-0
2026-08-05 莫斯科火車頭 1-1
2026-07-25 巴爾迪卡 2-1

Fakel Voronezh

D L L L

Other matches same day

Team dossier

CSKA Moscow

莫斯科中央陸軍職業足球會是一家位於俄罗斯莫斯科的体育运动俱乐部莫斯科中央陆军体育俱乐部的一个组成部分。

· Founded 1911

Fakel Voronezh

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

CSKA Moscow will face Fakel Voronezh at home. Judging from the latest pricing in the market, the main win is as low as 1.36 (implied winning rate is about 64.8%), which fully reflects the significant gap between the two sides in overall lineup depth and team strength.

Tactics and Data Dimension Assessment:

Formation and Offensive and Defensive Restraint: Fagor Fronese is accustomed to a 5-4-1 intensive defensive formation in away games, focusing on low-post contraction and defensive counterattacks. CSKA is expected to control a high ball possession rate of over 65% and launch a long positional attack.
Firepower and field control efficiency: Fagor lacks a strong counterattack point in the away game, and it is difficult to create high-quality shots against the top teams in the league; CSKA's defense is well-organized, but the scoring rhythm is usually steady when facing extremely dense defense, and they tend to control the rhythm of the game after taking the lead.
Goal count trend: The benchmark line for large and small markets is set at 2.5 goals (both high and low zone pricing is 1.85). Considering the visiting team's lack of scoring ability and the home team's tendency to make substitutions to control the situation after taking a multi-goal lead, the probability of a large number of goals being scored throughout the game is low.

Comprehensive prediction: CSKA will control the situation at home and win smoothly, with the estimated final score 2:0.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

CSKA Moscow

Fakel Voronezh

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis