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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 60.4%

Certus 62.0%

+1.6%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 30.0%

—

Result

Market 46.7%

Certus 42.2%

-4.5%

Settled

Russian Premier · 2026-08-15 23:30 · Certus

Rostov vs Rubin Kazan Rostov vs Rubin Kazan

Predicted 1-0

Actual 1-1

Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap main [0/-0.5]

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Main[0/-0.5] Result Home Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.89

Market implied 52.9%

Draw

2.96

Market implied 33.8%

Away win

3.75

Market implied 26.7%

半場主客和

Home win

2.55

Market implied 39.2%

Draw

1.87

Market implied 53.5%

Away win

4.65

Market implied 21.5%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.85

Market implied 35.1%

Under

1.36

Market implied 73.5%

[1.5]

Over

3.35

Market implied 29.9%

Under

1.27

Market implied 78.7%

[1.5/2]

Over

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

Under

1.16

Market implied 86.2%

入球大細

[2/2.5]

Over

2.02

Market implied 49.5%

Under

1.7

Market implied 58.8%

[2.5]

Over

2.33

Market implied 42.9%

Under

1.53

Market implied 65.4%

[3.5]

Over

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

Under

1.18

Market implied 84.7%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.05

Market implied 48.8%

主 [0.5] 細

1.68

Market implied 59.5%

主 [1.5] 大

5.6

Market implied 17.9%

主 [1.5] 細

1.09

Market implied 91.7%

客 [0.5] 大

2.85

Market implied 35.1%

客 [0.5] 細

1.36

Market implied 73.5%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

2.33

Market implied 42.9%

主 [1.5] 細

1.53

Market implied 65.4%

主 [2.5] 大

5.15

Market implied 19.4%

主 [2.5] 細

1.11

Market implied 90.1%

客 [0.5] 大

1.57

Market implied 63.7%

客 [0.5] 細

2.25

Market implied 44.4%

客 [1.5] 大

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

客 [1.5] 細

1.21

Market implied 82.6%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

3.75

Market implied 26.7%

和[-1]

3.4

Market implied 29.4%

客[+1]

1.72

Market implied 58.1%

主[+1]

1.18

Market implied 84.7%

和[+1]

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

客[-1]

9.5

Market implied 10.5%

讓球

主[0/-0.5]

1.71

Market implied 58.5%

客[0/+0.5]

2.08

Market implied 48.1%

波膽

Home

1:0

5.4

2:0

7.5

2:1

7.75

3:0

15.0

3:1

17.0

3:2

35.0

4:0

40.0

4:1

40.0

4:2

70.0

5:0

100.0

5:1

100.0

5:2

250.0

Draw

0:0

6.4

1:1

5.8

2:2

15.0

3:3

70.0

Away

0:1

8.25

0:2

16.0

1:2

11.5

0:3

40.0

1:3

35.0

2:3

40.0

0:4

125.0

1:4

100.0

2:4

150.0

0:5

600.0

1:5

500.0

2:5

600.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

3.75

2:0

8.75

2:1

18.0

3:0

40.0

3:1

100.0

3:2

500.0

4:0

250.0

4:1

500.0

4:2

1500.0

5:0

900.0

5:1

2000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

2.05

1:1

7.25

2:2

80.0

3:3

1500.0

Away

0:1

5.5

0:2

18.0

1:2

40.0

0:3

150.0

1:3

250.0

2:3

600.0

0:4

800.0

1:4

1000.0

2:4

3000.0

0:5

5000.0

1:5

5000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

主-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

主-客

40.0

Market implied 2.5%

和-主

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

和-和

4.0

Market implied 25.0%

和-客

7.75

Market implied 12.9%

客-主

28.0

Market implied 3.6%

客-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

客-客

6.1

Market implied 16.4%

總入球

0球

6.4

Market implied 15.6%

1球

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

2球

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

3球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

4球

6.4

Market implied 15.6%

5球

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

6球

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

7+球

40.0

Market implied 2.5%

入球單雙

單

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

雙

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

第一隊入球

主

1.67

Market implied 59.9%

無

6.4

Market implied 15.6%

客

2.58

Market implied 38.8%

Recent form

Rostov

D W W L

Rubin Kazan

D L W L

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Rubin Kazan

喀山紅寶石足球會，舊稱「魯賓卡山」，是一家俄罗斯职业足球俱乐部，位于鞑靼斯坦共和国的喀山，球队在此前的队名叫作“Iskra”（火花队）（1958-1964），“鲁宾-TAN队”（1992-1993）。隊名中Рубин在俄語中意為「紅寶石」。

喀山 · Central Stadium · Founded 1958

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

Rostov plays at home against Rubin Kazan, and the market's initial pricing gives the home team a low price (home win 1.89 | draw 2.96 | away win 3.75). Analyzed from a data science perspective, the home team's winning rate is estimated to be about 46.7%, which does not cross the high 52% confidence threshold, and the implied probability of a tie is as high as 29.8%, showing that the market is cautious about the home team's net win ability.

Tactical layout and goal prediction: Since the beginning of the season, the offensive and defensive paces of both teams have tended to be conservative and steady, with a long period of tug-of-war in the midfield. The market priced in the low area of 2.5 goals and offered an extremely low market pricing of 1.53, reflecting that the actuarial model predicts that this game will be a low-scoring stalemate.
Configuration Strategy Decision: When the winning rate of the direction is less than half and the risk of a draw is high, according to the decision tree model, it is not appropriate to force the home win as the core. Prioritize the [2.5] fine with the highest hit rate and the most skewed market pricing as the first choice asset; the second choice is paired with the Asian handicap Main [0/-0.5], taking into account the home team's small victory and the defensive effect of a win and a half loss.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Rostov vs Rubin Kazan Rostov vs Rubin Kazan

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

球隊入球大細

讓球主客和

讓球

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

Rostov

Rubin Kazan

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis