Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.8%
Secondary
Market
60.4%
Certus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Result
Market
55.1%
Certus
54.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.8%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-08-16 23:00
· Certus
Sarpsborg vs SandefjordSarpsborg vs Sandefjord
Predicted2-0
Actual1-2
Core configuration is the main win, second choice [3/3.5] to prevent dull games.
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Battle situation and points situation (2026 season)
According to the latest online search data (as of mid-August 2026), Sarpsborg is ranked 7th in the Norwegian Super League with 22 points from 16 games. Among them, it has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at home. The winning rate and unbeaten rate are both at the forefront of the league, showing strong home combat capabilities. The visiting team Sindivzot (Sandefjord) is on the edge of the relegation zone, ranking 13th with only 15 points in 16 games. What is particularly noteworthy is that its away record is extremely dismal, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses in 8 away games. The away defense is fragile and lacks offensive ability.
2. Comparison of lineup dynamics and tactics
In the first round of this season (March 2026), Sarpsborg defeated Sindivzot 2-0 away from home and has a significant psychological advantage. At the tactical level, Sarpsborg has strong control of the ball at home, while Sindivzot is often forced to retreat in away games and is limited by a single counterattack point, making it difficult to pose a real threat to the home team's defense. There have been no major new injuries to the main lineups of both sides recently, and the home team was able to attack the weak visiting team with a full lineup.
3. Market Pricing Bias Assessment
The Jockey Club's initial winning score is 1.60, and the system's implied probability is about 55.1%. Taking into account Sarpsborg's home winning rate of nearly 60% and the away team's away defeat rate of 75%, this pricing is highly consistent with the fundamentals and there is no obvious bias. A home win has extremely high positive gaming value. In addition, the baseline of goal size is set at 3.5 goals. Considering that the average number of goals scored and lost per game in the past 16 rounds by both sides is relatively low (about 2.5 goals for the home team and about 2.18 goals for the visiting team), the market has overpriced the big goal defense line, and the handicap [3/3.5] has good defense and investment value.
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