Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Secondary
Market
50.0%
Certus
47.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Result
Market
50.0%
Certus
47.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-16 20:00
· Certus
Brommapojkarna vs OrgryteBrommapojkarna vs Orgryte
Predicted2-1
Actual3-1
Core configuration [2.5] Large, second choice, primary win
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Current Situation Assessment:
The 2026 Swedish Super League has entered the middle of the season. Bromma Pokana is currently ranked 12th in the league (18 points in 16 rounds). There is a certain pressure to relegation, but the team's offensive performance is still normal (22 goals scored in the first 16 rounds). The visiting team Ogidi is deep in the relegation zone and ranks 15th (13 points from 16 rounds). Its biggest fatal injury this season is the complete collapse of the defensive end. It has conceded 37 goals in 16 league rounds and averaged 2.31 goals per game. The quality of the defense is the worst in the league. Although Okidi has recently performed brilliantly in defeating AIK in an away game, the defensive holes are still extremely difficult to cover up in the away game. In the first round match between the two sides in April, Bromma Pokana won 2-1 away from home.
Market Bias and Handicap Decisions:
The implied pricing for the home win in the initial set of this game is about 50% (market pricing 1.76), which is in the "grey area" of victory prediction and does not give the home team absolute crushing support. In the absence of Asian Handicap [0] as a defensive option in the handicap list, it is not appropriate to forcibly elevate the "main winner" as the first choice core according to the system's red line.
Combined with Okidi's extremely poor defensive data and the fighting spirit of both sides to grab points and avoid relegation, the game can easily develop into an open attack. The market is also strongly guarded against the number of goals scored, with the market pricing of [2.5] being reduced to 1.61. After model deduction, the self-assessed probability of the total goal exceeding 2.5 goals reaches 63%, which is higher than the one-way prediction of the result. Therefore, take [2.5] as the core asset with the highest certainty in this game, and use "main win" as the second choice to supplement the direction of the result.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
